EUR/USD Analysis

Discussion in 'Forex' started by TraderGreg, Mar 26, 2009.

  1. Hi. I decided to start a thread for the purpose of analyzing the EUR/USD. Please feel free to contribute ifyou like, but please include a chart and a few words if possible.
  2. Eur/Usd Analysis 3/26/09: Looking for the very possible bullish dragon weekly. The daily looks like it could be forming a bull flag heading into today, but I’m not sure on the short term heading into London session. If there is a bullish move to confirm this, I would expect it to occur within the next 12 hours (London to prime American). 3 Hour looks only very weakly bearish to me, and the hourly looks neutral. However, the 15 min appears cloudy. I think the current move might be too high-energy to be sustainable, but I would never say whether it may lead to a pause and continue or later reversal.
  3. EUR/USD Analysis 3/27/09:

    Decided to stick with the weekly, daily, and 3 hour analysis for the thread because I get less practice with them (less bars), and it is just easier for occasional thread entries.

    What I'm seeing:

    Weekly: the same as yesterday pretty much. A better-drawn TL shows confidence in the dragon pattern, and the ability for the market to continue to sustain its last week rally just tells me there is enough buying pressure to keep the pattern tradable if it fires.

    We are still sitting around resistance at 1.35, so it is definitely reasonable to see a weekly consolidation as well, and possibly a small pullback.

    Daily: It's pretty easy to see that the market is holding its TL break well, but the daily bull flag now seems unlikely to me. I wouldn't expect anything major Friday, and I don't trade until 24 hours after Monday Asian open so I'm not trying to forecast it really. However, I see a possible attempt at a rounding bull continuation, which would need several more bars.

    3 Hour: The strong bounce off previous support seems to encourage a rally, but the lower highs seem to indicate neutrality. The hourly bounce is also encouraging in the bullish direction with its bounce off of 1.35, but based on everything else I see a possibility of it trading through the top channel (not drawn) but unlikely to make a high above it.

    Have a good weekend
  4. Nice call with the inside bar. I should have been looking at that with an open to either direction, and with the 1 hour spike pattern perhaps I should have been more open to the bear trade. Unfortunately, I wasn't taking the first spike seriously because it was quick and volatile.

    I started the thread because I want to put more focus on my long term directional analysis and why I went wrong. Seems to be working so far, lol.
  5. hey TraderGreg...good to see you back...are you finally trading with "real cold hard cashola $$$"...or still demo trading?
  6. Still demo. Been hanging around b/e, only have time to trade maybe 5 hours/week.

    March 30 Analysis:

    Weekly: Last week's close resulted in a kind of tweezers piercing signal that I've found can be bullish (with a break up in next 1-3 bars) or bearish depending on the next few bars.

    It seems I was right when I said the news announcement may disturb the dragon pattern. I have a chart that reminds me that news doesn't change the structure of the market, unless the structure of the market is built upon the news - perhaps I should have been a a bit quicker to neutralize my previous bullish bias, although I may still consider the dragon confirmed with an upward break.

    Daily: appears now to be making a very solid descending triangle pattern. The day's close (eastern) will likely be a hammer, but this early in the week I don't pay attention much to the daily (energy is on the 3 hr). Based on the patterns though, I think it could go either way.

    3 Hour: Fantastic bounce off my TL and 1.31, which I saw very well with horns and other signals on the lower timeframes. I'm bullish here until proven otherwise :) . Having said that, we are right around the weekly opening and early volume (resistance), and nearing a down trendline (not shown here, on hourly), and the 15 min is bearish enough for a possible short, although I'd likely wait for the 30 min coming up soon.
  7. March 31 / April 1 Analysis (just hit midnight on East coast)

    Monthly: decided to have the monthly in for good measure, since it is the end of the month. However, if I said it was entirely irrelevant for analysis it would be an understatement. What I do learn from it, though, is that 1.35 is a pretty significant level, which I can transfer over to analysis of the weekly and daily. Also, it's just kind of interesting with volatility -- months used to have ranges of 250 pips, now if a daily bar had a range of less than 175 it's probably Christmas or Thanksgiving.

    Weekly: Tweezers, potential dragon, nothing new. I don't analyze active bars unless they are very close to a close.

    Daily: 2 bars since the week open. Doesn't really say much. I don't spend much time on the daily for this reason - I think an 8 or 12 hour would be a lot better, but I don't know where to get one. Well anyway we have a wick in each direction but overall closes slightly bearish. After a WRB down move last Friday and downward gap, I would expect nothing different.

    3 Hour: Inside bar. Break up is higher low = bullish. Break down is just a continuation of the current small move. Don't be fooled by the trendline bounce -- I'd put an 85% chance at the least that this breaks down based on shorter PA.
  8. Before I post my analysis for the day, I want to say that this thread has been a gigantic success for me. Not only has my direction been much better, the skills I've taken from this exercise is making me a complete trader. The analysis has led me to taking leveraged, confident trades down to the 5 min trade, and I even took my first 1 min trade today without any doubt. I just see things much clearer, and it has really shown with my performance (as from even last week to impressive profits this week).

    That being said, I think I've pretty much accomplished what I wanted and more from this thread, and I will probably only come in here and there just for the exercise.

    Reflection from last post: I was meaning that there was an 85% chance that the inside bar would break, and it did like I thought it would (even though it bounced right from there), so I was still right on that one. As for the daily, I really wasn't seeing a rally last post, but I also didn't have the 3rd bar at the time, which was pretty indicative of a possible rally.


    Weekly: I am going to go out on a limb here and say that, even though PA hasn't broken the daily trendline, this dragon is basically confirmed as long as Friday closes decently within last week's range (and I think it is likely it will)

    Daily: It's pretty clear that there are lower highs and higher lows here, but the weekly dragon has me more looking for longs unless I see some very strong contrary signals.

    3 Hr: Uptrend is clearly very weak, and it had a strong bounce off my trendline, 1.35, and it's upper channel all at the same time that made me a lot of money. Unfortunately, I'm not clear on its movement now, and the shorter timeframes are hard for me to read right now. Even if the trend is up there is still a possible ABC decline, and the reaction can also be a semi-fluke as I'm sure PA will only very rarely surmount such a large resistance obstacle on its first try.

    Time will, if nothing else, allow momentum to rebuild (already has destroyed the channel) and then overtake the trendline and resistance separately. If it were indeed a downtrend though, price may go up and make a double top, 1-2-3, etc. I'm not sure and I wouldn't take a trade until I can match a signal with a timeframe-oriented direction. I mean, it might even be a spike and ledge for all I know.

    Anyone catch the 3hr dragon earlier (thick line)??? I missed that one, but I hopped on the end of the dragon completion today for a bit.
  9. I've done well as of late, and I've decided to post an analysis entry mainlyto reinforce some things I've learned.

    Weekly: Although the dragon still leads me to believe this has a good chance of being a bull flag, I honestly couldn't care less. It could also be a descending triangle, in which case a new low for the month would have me looking more aggressively for daily shorts.

    Daily. And there's another descending triangle. I'm not a fan of these things because I haven't been able to figure out which way they'll break before they do, and they can easily be tops and bottoms, even if trend continuation is most likely (unless your against a TL....). Normally the inside bar break would have me looking for longs, but because it's Monday I need more confirmation than that.

    4hr/3hr/2hr - decided to add the 4 hr. All bearish though. Anyone notice the dragon leading up to this rally? What a nifty signal!

    I have a lot of other things to do today though, so I won't be posting a chart.
    #10     Apr 13, 2009