Hi Arco, most indicators do look bullish, however, this cross inparticular has a nasty habit of violent moves that unwind many indicators with one daily move. On top of that it was used a proxy for oil during the runup over the last 2 years and has printed lifetime highs in the face of a 20% correction in oil. Not to mention it was used as a substitute for the yuan with an inverted correlation. Something has to give....my bet is eur/jpy. FWIW, I am also short gbp/jpy and cad/jpy, as I cannot believe the flagrant manipulation of statistics by the Japanese govt to weaken the yen. They are trying their hardest to hide an elephant of a recovery. And finally, the record number of yen shorts according to the CFTC reports must be unwound at some point...
I like that thought... that the japs are trying to hide their recovery. I do agree with the fundamentals of what you say, but one of the reasons for my initial posts was to comment on the technicals which (as is often the case with the yen) fly in the face of reality. arco, I like the symmetric triangle. It helps.
________________ I always keep this saying in the back of my mind.......... "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes ________________
How can the EUR/JPY go up anymore? I'm glad my short was small...the folks over at Investica are stuck as well...
All the exotics are great trading pairs, as long as you can stomach the pip spread (up to 12 in aud/nzd). This pair has actually been quite tame lately, too much interest in it, check out the aud/nzd chart, it has had more 200 pip moves lately than any other pairing. Gbp/jpy pair has had some decent moves too.