What I said about breakouts from trendlines is probably not a true statement, I just need to work on things a bit more. I will get it right.
Daily trading reflection Tuesday 9/16/08 Pre-trading TOS spreads on both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY very high for second day in a row. Going to trade the EUR/USD with Oanda once the spread reaches 2 pips this evening, and will use the simple strategy that came close to b/e with the EUR/JPY (about 3 pips under with 44 in commissions â not bad). Since my strategy is so simple and apparently a bit better than I am at the moment, I will use it to assist me in my learning â I will enter practically think-free trades while studying why it works and also be watching the levels and the other levels and patterns I ordinarily watch. I am nearly complete my pre-trading routine at 7:30 however, but the spreads are also quite high on Oanda â 5 pips EUR/JPY and 3 EUR/USD. I wonder if I need a Japanese holiday calendar, haha. Post-Trading With three trades using my strategy on the five-minute chart, I lost about 35 pips (not too much of a big deal, the strategy would have caught the 120 pip move as well). After the EUR/USD spread dropped to 1.5 pips, I employed my strategy on the 30 sec chart, losing three pips in 17 trades (2% loss, 25 pips in commissions). Overall, not a bad trading day. My strategy caught several moves that I normally wouldnât have, although it lost plenty while a giant but shallow triangle was forming. I had large losses during this period. I think I need to keep my strategy to help smooth things out and keep learning from it, as well as begin to work in my current knowledge of understandings of chart patterns. At the same time, I also need to understand when the market is consolidating short term, and in turn use this information to play the longer intraday setups (so I donât get chopped up like I believe I have in nearly every trading session, pun intended I guess). The rest of my week will be spent catching up on readings and learning the Oanda platform for trading, and school (I was actually studying the entire session while I was trading). Good luck for the rest of the week. Pretty sure TOS is trying to lose my business right now. I will probably hold an IRA when I get to that point though.
Although my title for this thread will remain in conflict, I will now be trading the EUR/USD exclusively. I have been extremely unhappy with the recent spreads on the EUR/JPY (four pips, not really a large percentage difference than the EUR/USD). These spreads have been both with Oanda and with TOS. Although the EUR/USD spread seems to remain high (approx. 3 pips) until around 8:30 pm eastern or so, it is well worth the wait when it goes down to 1.5. At the same time, it will also be a nice lesson to me to study the longer intraday trends while the spread is higher -- this should help me get a very good feel for all intraday setups. Furthermore, the EUR/USD is by far the best intraday pair during London hours. Although this is not entirely applicable to me as a current college student right now, I will have four summer months and times here and there when I will be able to trade its hours (as a business major with plenty of AP credits coming in and a heavy workload early, I only have to take an average of just over four classes per semester. Unfortunately, I am not happy with how long it took me to make this decision. I have been trading the EUR/JPY for about five weeks, and it really didn't occur to me to do further statistical research until the past few days. The idea of me giving up everything I know if it is incorrect is one of the cornerstones of my philosophy, and I think I was a bit delayed as well in my reluctance to learn the Oanda platform. My concerns are that this hesitation and hold onto my beliefs will hold back my trading and prevent the adaptations and developments of my trading. On the other hand, as I have said before, I am a slow learner and at least I recognize that I need to start a few things from scratch, and I have done so. Good trading Friday (especially if you are in stocks -- huge swings with Thursday close at previous bear market low on extremely high volume -- my guess is that insane volatility continues tomorrow -- good luck with that!)
Today, I just spent about 2.5 hours watching the EUR/USD unfold tonight (while watching the Packers game as well). Although I did not calculate any pivots, I believed I took out a lot concerning forecasting potential breaks in trends, and was able to plan out some of would-be trades. This worked out well, because it was easier for me to keep an open eye on the market, play around with some new techniques (such as in drawing some different trendlines, etc.). I should be back tomorrow. I have four exams this week, but I trading is my priority as long as I have a 3.0. I only need 10 hours/week to meet my current trading goals.
Today was a very relaxing trading day for me (EUR/USD from about 8:35 to 11:00 eastern). I used my basic strategies with a bit more generosity on stops depending on the trends, and added in some new ways of drawing trendlines. I also was listening to some bluegrass, which has been my studying and overall work music of choice lately (relaxing and can concentrate). Anyway, I netted 4.9 pips on only eight trades in the approximately 2.5 hours (was very patient and there werenât that many price swings â a time in which I would have usually have been chopped up completely). I may be back tomorrow, we will see. I am up to 5.5 hours of trading work for the week, and I have a backed up to do list both for trading and for schoolwork. Good trading, Greg
Pre-Trading Today I felt pretty good about my pre-trading routine, with one exception I fall into sometimes. One of rule tells me not to enter any position until all my trading rules are read, my pivot points are calculated and marked, and draw my trendlines on ALL charts. By the time I reached the five minute chart, I was seeing a fantastic setup. I entered before investigating the 1-minute and 30-sec, however, at which point would have realized that it was at the bottom of the downtrend channel. Although the market pushed through the lower bound and my trade ran for another ten pips further profit (until I held it like a goon), I entered a trade without a specific entry point, which is in direct violation of my trading rules. Not fun. Time to put the bluegrass back on . I will be trading from 9-11 Eastern today. Trading Session Comments Couple of shakeouts, but I caught a nice 25 pip move on my fifth. Unfortunately, I did not draw my trendlines precisely enough on the 15 min and 5 min charts, so I missed the initial exit signal and only snagged 21.5. Iâve had worse problems, haha. This was definitely a move I would have been extremely hesitant with and missed in the past, as it was a long when I was looking for a short breakout. The total move was forty pips however. Two mistakes I want to point out to myself in writing: missed great entry with top at top of downtrend channel; I took the safe route instead and waited for the 30 sec/1 min trendline to be broken, costing me a higher-percentage play of five pips. Second, I exited after that trendline just described was hit. That was a purely emotional play to protect myself from going to about a five pip gain to a loss. What I should have and normally would have done was to let the trendline be broken and place a stop about 3 pips above it. This would have properly allowed for consolidations, and was something I was doing extremely well yesterday. Also, I should have noticed the weakness in the downtrend by failing to fall back to the lower bound (not once, but twice). This is something Iâve been trying to pick up lately, but I will start getting it. I think I really appreciate the opportunity to trade the Asian session. Consistent pips are so small and so precious in this environment that it really takes great amounts of skill, excellent management, and focus to make a decent profit. I would think this is much better than the London session, which has so many pips flying around that it seems like it would be distracting in the crucial learning of trade management especially. A lot of focus and skill to learn quickly here in Asian. And my market observations hold true! Short fell below lower downtrend bound, then saw the knife reversing on five second, covered, and watched it rally through the top! This created a 2.5 pip profit off of what would have normally been about an 8-pip loss for me as it rallied through! Unfortunately just lost 4.1 on the ensuing long, however (market showing me a new voodoo apparently). Watched the same setup AGAIN. Caught my exit but was afraid to also take it as a long. Simple breakout strategy would have been b/e at best after commissions, but a nice long there would have made about 6-7 pips with a timely exit. I think I will try it for real next time, time to call it a day though. Post-Trading My trades for today, a two hour session (minus about 10 minutes to see if my clue would develop) (in pips): -0.3, -3.9, -3.8, -4.4, +21.5, +2, -4.3, +2.9, +2.4, -4.1, +1.6. Total: +9.6 pips (gross 27.2, 9.2 commissions). Woohoo! Eleven round trips in two hours is great for my current goals. Unfortunately, I have exams out the waazoo and wonât be trading anymore this week (I will be doing other trading work and watching, however). Week end: +0.752%. NOTE: do not directly compare this with my previous totals. I am trading the same lot size on my Oanda account, which has 3x the money. Comparative profits would be around 2.25% with the same conditions (although my spread did get lower, but still it would have been profitable. Time to study. I think this journal is really helping me! Making me think more about my trades. I think reflecting on them is better than a trade-by-trade journal (at least for now). All I did in that thing was either not write in it or just use it for extreme vulgarity when chewing out my mistakes (still made them often anyway). Good trading.
I finished learning the Oanda platform over about two hours over the past two days (I was half through the walkthrough). I have no more exams for about three weeks, so hopefully I will be able to kick up my trading a bit. Good luck for the week.
Post-Trading My first trade of the day pretty much sums up the rest of the session. It was a loss of 11 pips, a gigantic and unacceptable loss. Not only was I too hesitant to exit because of the high spread (and was waiting, hoping, for possible continuation at a trendline 7 pips below), I also forgot to check the pivot points, took a breakout from the wrong chart (took breakout on 1 min chart on when was a 5-min or 15-min chart play and therefore needed more strength before true breakout), and also broke one of my other observations of price strength in opposite direction after rally away from uptrend line. Hmm. In the end, I had to cut the trading session short after 1.5 hours. The spreads were terrible (2.5-3 pips) and my trades were worse. 12 trades in 1.5 hours, creating a loss of 31.6 pips (paid about 30 in commissions). It was one of those trading days when you force yourself to exit and put your head in your hands. If this session taught me anything, it is that I need to stop screwing around and get back down to business. I need to go back and create written notes of every move worth playing (my general rule is anything about 5x the spread and no less than ten pips). I need to look at it on every chart â see what the development looks like on the 30 second, the 1 minute, the 5 minute, and the 15 min, and possible technical or even non-technical reasons for the move (Iâm not getting into news quite yet, but random price strength will be interesting to study as what I could only assume to be news). No more comments. I need to spend time screen watching and studying rather than channeling my focus on something I clearly donât understand as well as I need to.
New focus -- studies. During my short trading session today, I pinpointed about 57 pips of playable moves (at least 15 pip moves). I went in and explained to myself in writing where these moves began, any shakeouts, important levels and PA, and the apparent exit. I did this on the macro level (pivots, bigger trendlines and s/r, etc.), and then looked and studied the same move on the 5 sec, 10 sec, 30 sec, 1 min, and 5 min (if applicable, I also studied three moves before my session began as it was still shown on the 5 sec oanda chart). I believe that after repeating this process numerous upon numerous times with good analysis will engrave these patterns into my brain, and overcome my slow learning process. If only I could somehow work permanently on my patience as well (patience is my tragic flaw in everything, and measures I have taken to improve it remain only band-aids). Good luck trading for the week.