EUR/JPY Evening Trader

Thanks David, I am learning everyday, thanks to watching you and Cabletrader make the trades. But I am still trading the infamous Eur Aud on the demo, the rest of the pairs live though. I have been playin the eur/aud against strong moves in the us markets intraday, obviously the thing moves counter to the markets but it has been working well. Not sure if its just a short term thing due to the stock market chaos or is that generally how it moves, you tell me. With in a week or so , I will be trading only forex , trading the system I talked about earlier and a little scalping off the 5 min on s/r lines when I have the itch. Now I still trade the eminis for my income. But will give fx my full attention for a while and see if I can make the transitiion. So we shall see. Trader Gregg good seld anaylsis , I enjoy reading your threads keep your head high, dont question yourself as a trader. You can do it, just keep trying no giving up! I had my own blow up about 5 years ago in options where I actaully filed bankruptcy( due to shorting naked options in energy) So I am back from the dead. It was a life changer and helped me appreciate trading and risk. And more then ever it made me never give up on a dream so I kept going albiet a slower pace since I was broke. On simple mistake cost me everything I had, my car , my place to live. But I didnt give up not matter what, just do not listen to any detractors on here. I like this thread , cabletrader, david, reaver all good people if you read Ivans trde journal part 2 on here. Also there are a couple of other forums like forex factory and babypips where people are a lot nicer and willing to help. Besides the people I mentioned in this post there are not many others on here that are helpful. But keep posting

 

!......Jesus......!

 

what FX pairs do you trade with real/live money?...so, you are going to goo fulltime trading Forex...cool...keep us up to date...thanks!!!

 

I will reply to these posts and have a normal post later in which I discuss why I am choosing to trade common chart patterns, but I am going out soon so wanted to post a fake game plan on my asian session GBP/CHF.

Ok, the EUR/USD looks bearish to me because I would have played the fifth motion of the rising wedge, and it is working out now, but the trade is already playing out. I am unsure of the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY right now (at least not confident enough to make a trade), but wanted to make some analysis of the GBP/CHF.

My vision: down move started with nice double top and down breakout on 15 min, then going down and ending with a nice pin before the up move and correcting nicely at the 50%.

However, the down move is also a 50% correction of the previous up move.

Considering this, the chart seems overall neutral. But, as the current few hour down correction looks like a bull flag, I would play it long. Not on the breakout, but on the breakout of the previous swing high before the bull flag (because it is Asian session trying to trade two European currencies). From there, I would target AB=BC with very close watch for stalls and reversals around the .786 and .88something (don't remember right now) for possible Gartley/Bat.

Otherwise, I think I would also trade a breakout on either side of the last major upmove bar on the EUR/JPY. I don't see anything on the USD/JPY, but I very rarely do anyway.
I'll be very busy tonight, but I will be checking it frequently - perhaps that is the beauty of trading on the 15 min and hourly - I just may have to check i more often throughout the day if I expect to have any good opportunities of catching good signals (hate seeing great opportunities in maybe 4 hourly bars out of 24).

Good trading, and will be back later.

 

Just noting the ugliness of the GBP/CHF spread this time of day - .08% with Oanda (15 pips). I might try to get a fifth and then alternate between the two depending on London/Asian.

I will have to do an analysis of spreads for Asian as well it seems.

Note: the pair is only 5 pips during London/American.

 

Rsikit,

That is a very crazy situation, but I am glad you came back to follow your dream in the markets.

For me personally, I have always had an itch do be an individual, to accomplish and so something great. I have always taken on interesting hobbies, some in pursuit of a greatness that made me happy as well, others for the sole purpose of self refinement (such as working out for the last six years, careful mental training and philsophy, etc.).

I did this with many things - I chose to pursue golf with everything I had, only to realize I lacked the natural swing (I was good, scratch wasn't good enough). I used to go on long hikes and drives out to places I can think, trying to figure out what I wanted with my life.

I came up with things here and there - I wrote a novel in ninth grade, only to realize I don't have the right mind to be a great novelist.

I studied astronomy for a year, only to eventually come to the conclusion that I could never actually pursue anything without cutting edge technology.

I revisited writing again last year, when I began working on two books - one on the fall of the United States as a world power, and one trying to locate and analyze the possible causes and effects of a world war three - only to realize the amount of research was immense, and once I eventually came to the conclusion that the national debt is undeniably good I realized I simply just didn't know enough.

It was about this time that I realized I had a dream in life, and that was to have a dream - and I would chase it until my death. I also came to the conclusion that a family and kids was a dream for me, but that is far in the future that it could not be avidly chased.

I wrote philosophy afterwards for a while as I new I could turn many popular theories and philosophers upside down in two paragraphs (my kind of natural thinking), but realized a few things. These theories are popular because of their brilliant eloquence and persuasiveness to the masses who want to look smart, leading to the acceptance of ideas that are so abstract that they should be logically refuted in a second. I am not as skilled of a writer as I would like to be, so I could never attain this kind of fame, and who is worth persuading anyway. Anyone I persuade is not worth persuading (philosophers should have ideas, not persuasion), and without persuasion and very great writing skills I could not become a respected philosopher.

This ended in January, about when I found the markets. I realized this world is exactly what I need - a place where analysis and mental strength dominate with rewards few can imagine. I could refrain from the spoils of the money-obsessed and corrupt business world, have time for my family or whatever I want while being part of my dream - true and ultimate freedom.

I also like competition and would like to emerge from nothing to be something great - something trading provides me an opportunity for.

I will chase trading, hopefully, until I die.

I don't really know how that happened but once I got going it was hard to stop lol - stuff I think all the time but wouldn't tell anyone.

 

Enough dreams for one day for me. Today's work:

Did a little bit of work today. My game plan would have not resulted in any trades as of 11:23 p.m. on the GBP/CHF (plan started around five or so). My target would have been hit on the EUR/USD for a nice gain, and I would either be working with a very tight stop or would have exited at this point. I did notice the entry points on the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY shorts (top of channel and kind of diamond), although I’m not sure if I would have taken the trades.

Spreads: unfortunately the GBP/USD is abysmal at 15 pips – 0.08% in Asian session. I did a spread analysis just over an hour ago, and decided that the USD/CHF (surprisingly good movement this session), EUR/CHF, and AUD/USD have good or acceptable spreads in both London and Asian session. It is somewhat possible that I cut the GBP/CHF and add all three, although I’m not sure I want six pairs and will really have to think about this one.

That’s about all I did worth talking about today, but I would like to discuss the validity of playing classic chart patterns in today’s markets, both in my strategy and in general.

Personally, I think chart patterns are a great way for me to enter the market. Finding a path to consistent profitability will be fantastic for me before I can start screen watching more and begin to learn more things about the market that can’t be read in books. It is also very rule and order-based (concrete limit/stop entries and exits), which makes them fairly easy to play with some memorization, discipline, and patience – all things I can believe I can develop in a somewhat shorter period of time.

Now, why should I or anyone have confidence in the validity of simple, recurring chart patterns? The answer is in the moves of the markets and trader quality. I am going to be working on the assumption, and for me it is an assumption, that chart patterns and signals, etc. were profitable at one point and time. Now, let’s have millions of online traders attack this profitable opportunity, and what happens? Some very interesting things, but mainly noise, and noise creates losses.

Most people, I am sure, cannot take consistent losses. They can’t take the loss and rejection of learning, they may lack the intelligence or dedication or be too stubborn to change their approach (surely infinite reasons). If they pass this, then they likely still fall short of the money management policy of losing three of four trades with a 4:1 reward to risk. Maybe it is the stress of losses, maybe it is the failure of management skills to reach this level (if my stop is just a bit higher, I would have stayed in and made………………….), but the reasons themselves don’t matter at all. Every losing trade, or rather every missed opportunity creates stress for a new wave of traders, and they disbelieve the system - they quit, justify themselves with efficient market theories.

Noise is the key to profitability in the markets. It means that traders are getting shaked out; losing; failing. It weeds the weak, the undisciplined, undedicated, less astute, or less experienced. It is the losses that are the brilliance of market consistency, not the profits. It is the pain of noise, of inconsistency, of randomness that creates opportunities.

And what remains? The same profitable patterns and occurrences that were there in the beginning, evolving with innovative thinkers yet overall unchanging in nature. Common market knowledge (if fibs overcome patterns or some new indicators, this would still hold true) can only APPROACH unprofitability, but can never become unprofitable. A small window will always be left, as people as a whole will never realize and be capable of exploiting the opportunities enough to close it (and if they did, there would be no opportunities, weed out some traders, which would open it again). It is this phenomenon that creates opportunities for the stronger; those who experiment; those who think critically; the resourceful; those who learn. May they be patient and either take or realize the profits given to them before they can become innovative, master the art, and rise to the elite - a level in sync with the markets, which common market knowledge cannot even begin to understand.

 

TraderGreg...appreciate your openness...go for it in your trading dream!!...as one once said..."It is not him who is poor who is without a dime but him who is without a dream"!!!

 

Thanks for the encouragement, Inow. I won't give up, don't you worry about that.

 

During Watching

Based on my spreads I do have six pairs on my screen, but I don’t think I should be watching that many. I don’t think the GBP/CHF is worth keeping track of during Asian session, and the other three are on my screen right now, but I have decided to work on other things as well as watch the market, so I’m only going to keep track of my big three – the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY. I will likely decide on a fourth later between the USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, and AUD/USD, but for today I’m sticking to the big three.

Anyway, just started watching the market at 5:30 or so, and soon after had a big example between trading and watching for me. I am observing a potential reversal on the EUR/JPY, when I noticed that it seemed like a bearish reversal was occurring. I decided to watch it form before any action, but then once it appeared it began going down in earnest, I instinctively went for my mouse (for laptop - scroll thingy) as if I had to enter the trade! I was trying to preempt the signal and enter before it formed, so I wouldn’t risk losing the opportunity! I smiled and sat back. Two bars later, the formation never came, and the trade went directly against me, and it’s kind of funny to me. Two things come to mind: I am learning and learning to be patient for one, and of course my rant on the difference between commitments and ideas for me. Ha! If I keep this up I might actually make progress.

I also was looking into the opportunities at my school for the markets, which has a bond market fund managed by students as well as a long equity fund by students. However, I was looking at their “annual report,” and saw that they only kept 1.44% cash. Sounds like a bunch of morons.

Post Watching

I once had a trader tell me that real trading is boring, and watching the 15 min chart during Asian session is making me realize this. Mostly, it seemed like I just kept up by looking every bar or two (15-30 min), and doing other things in the meantime. I am assuming that this is the environment I need right now to work slowly.

Anyway, the EUR/JPY accomplished about 65 pips since I began watching it six hours ago, and the EUR/USD and USD/JPY had 40 or so apiece. Of this, very little of it seemed tradeable, as I saw a beautiful morning star on the USD/JPY fail, and a good bullish engulfing entry leading to it may have yielded 20. Other than that, the GBP/CHF, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, and AUD/USD did practically nothing as well (looking at them for the first time now). It seems to me now that, only a few months ago, I would have 12 trades in a session trying to catch the tiniest wiggle in a world of nothingness. I realize now that a good entry has to be offered, and there really isn’t much.

Calling it a night early as I haven’t made six hours of sleep in three straight days. Good trading.