EUR.JPY 138.5 to 130.65 since 8.30 monday. with DOW up 200. ???

Discussion in 'Forex' started by gangof4, Oct 21, 2008.

  1. gangof4


    the size of this move relative to the movement in the equity markets seems pretty fucking extreme.

    yeah, we broke the 10.10 low, but geesh.

    seems due for a bounce. then again, i thought the same early this morning, and i got run over to the tune of $25m in a matter of a couple minutes (had a hard stop but, apparently (????) it rushed well past it before trading and then i was fucked once it did). got back all but 5500- still a disaster.

    each time i've seen a move like this (except in the aussie), it has had a massive bounce. anyone care to posit an opinion- contrary or otherwise...
  2. Looks like the mood is still careful, fearful and thinly covered... You can see this over smaller timeframes very pronounced. I think of markets a little like "I like to tun in pack with similar minded"... hehe, so that means I don't particularly sync well with the current crowd - and possibly no-one does well with the currents now. I think it pays well to wait for more confidence back in the moves, instead of the panic which seemed to follow from the repatriation effects and accumulating bad news today. The Q3 results, outlooks, financial bailout rollouts etc - it all added to a terrible climate which made everyone overwhelmed, I think. I acted on a longer timeframe than the one I was looking at - so that was one factor in me doing badly today - as well as being tired, sleepy... leading me to bad risk decisions.

    I think a real bounce is a little off still, and the fear in Europe, rolling into US -- will probably continue through the Asian session, where they are careful of what they have.

    "Unpredictable" I think is the best way to describe the current situation - short term. That is because there are so many conflicting interactions - whipping up the whole system, and it only "makes sense" on a large macro-level - considering psychology etc.