11:20PM December 9, 2008 (eastern time): my short position is built. eur/gbp at 0.8775 area. This might be the last final call before the falling process starts. Time is 11:25PM when I hit the publish button on this forum. (keep record of the clock!).
Are you sure? If you are sure, I will pick only tops then. PS: A bottom is a top if you turn the chart upside down. Check this thread to see how I deal with tops and bottoms: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=127406&perpage=6&pagenumber=54
The above is still the standing top. Now is 1:59PM, and pair is sliding nicely so far. It is below .8750. Some strong buyers are spotted at 0.8745. We will see if they will get defeated at first contact, or whether a lift and dump is needed to get rid of them.
We got stopped out at 0.8765 few moments go with 10 pips profits after the position made around 35 pips at certain point and no draw down. We are going to re-enter again. 4:15AM December 10, 2008 (eastern time): eur/gbp at 0.8780 area. We are re-entering on short side. 4:19AM as I submit this to the forum.
That is called a headfake, if it turns out to be a real heafake. eur/gbp is back challenging the area where the buyers were faked. (0.8740). It should break it to deliver the warning to longs! Are you long? Additions: 5:40AM. Pair is at 0.8730. We have another 50 PIPS built in it as a profit (in addition to the earlier profits realized), plus the nailing of the current top (which is priceless).
RFT - I'd be very careful about calling a top here. The Euro benefits from irrational bouts of exuberance, and I think this is one of those. The Euro absolutely shouldn't be gaining here, but it is. One would think the pound would gain faster, but again, it's not. It's almost as if investors have forgiven any downturn in the EZ, but penalized the UK for it's recession. Stupidity, as usual. I think what we're seeing is a (temporary?) repricing of inflation right now. IE, commodities, and as a result, the Euro, beginning to think of what happens after we're out of the current downturn. If it proves to not be temporary, then we'll undoubtably see a run back to the 1.34-6 area.