I believe that EUR/CAD short would be a good play. With Refcofx the spread is 10 pips. But I could enter this trade instead: EUR/USD sell (3 pip spread) USD/CAD sell (5 pip spread) Total 8 pip spread and is the same as EUR/CAD sell. Any comments?
Yes, you could do that. As long as you maintain the correct ratio, of course: 1.21 looney lots short for each euro lot short, or as close as feasible. And you'll need to be careful with your SLs and TPs.
I don't think so. Take a look at the 1 year chart, this is one of the most consistent/strong trends I have seen.
Exactly why I say it's kinda late -- would have been a very nice trade to enter 9 months ago. But now? Where would you set your stop? Can you sit through a spike as large as the one in December?