Having rarely followed this pair, I'd like to hear commentary from the usual informed group as to why this pair is skyrocketing like it is. It's easy to throw "unwinding of carry trade" as the reasoning behind it, but I'm looking to get a bit deeper than that. It's highly overbought, and has shot up over 500-600 pips without correcting. And still shows no sign of doing so, though I am tempted to fade here for the correction. Any thoughts? -Ivan
I was just looking at this one too...It's trying to break 1.7000. I am not in this trade right now, but in the next little while, I might put in a short. -Kastro
Are you short on this one Ivan? I have not traded this one that much, and from the looks of it, 300 pips spikes are quite common. -Kastro
Was, but got stopped. WOn't go back in to this. It's just too ridiculous. Hell, the whole market is insane at the moment - I might just take a month's vacation. I've done miserably in March.
March will be my first losing month since December of 2004, and my second losing month since I began trading Forex. While the long term record is still very nice, it doesn't make getting punched in the face any easier.
Sorry to hear about that Ivan...But hey, be very proud that you have only been in the whole TWICE since you started trading forex. I am sure next month you will RAPE the market! This month has been off and on for me too. Had 2 really big winners, and the rest were pretty much crap. -Kastro
You know why, don't you? Bernanke alluded to it Monday night. Massive global liquidity, coinz specifically, who is back in action. Retail traders crushed underfoot, central bankers cowering -- this guy is pitiless.
Ivan, if you can isolate it to a few trades that incidentally just didn't work out, you shouldn't let one month's results trouble you much at all. However, it's endemic of markets that those doing well for a time will be the ones most vulnerable when the markets shift, so in that sense stay on your toes.
Thanks, mates. Appreciate the kind words. No doubt I'll come back as Kastro says and tear April a new one. I'd like to hear more about Chood's commentary, though. If you have a moment, Chood, and can post a paragraph giving more detail on what you mean in that, it'd be great. Cheers.