I still think 6E is going to 1.342 and then probably on to 1.37. However we've been stuck in a slowly climbing 50 pip channel for weeks now. I expected 6E to hit 1.342 by now but the fact that it hasn't coupled with the lethargic PA may indicate that it needs to drop a bit further before resuming any climb. Now that the ZEW is out of the way, I think if 6E stays above 1.328 after the US news in a few hours then I still favor being long. Otherwise 6E is probably going below 1.317. I have hedged my bets by selling the yen- far weaker than the Euro.
Abe hints at corp tax cut offset to sales tax hike last night helped, as well as US data today and US yields helping UJ. I thought we would take out 3400 before dropping but remember seeing something about Greece worries early in the week here. From what I gather unless we get some real horrible US data, the FED is set to ease on the QE in Sept so that should help USD and seems the main driver still. Can't forget some political stuff later in Sept for EUR.
failed to get above 3400 again... implied vol is super low on this pair, testing 8mo lows. Should test under 3300 again I assume.
Yeah I expected it to break through 1.342 today, but it hasn't. Still I wouldn't call the attempt over just yet. GBP is still strong and I'm willing to wait and see if it happens on Monday. I favor shorting the yen here and cad here.
Yea it's Friday, I will see if there are strong bids into 3300 next week. not really sure about yen though, USD/JPY has to get above 98 for me. FOMC next week... CAD, same deal, has to get higher. I like AUD/USD right now more than trading USD/CAD, more volatility.
I must say I'm bullish, but need few confirmations (based on charts). Also on Thursday could see an interesting play - it dropped after US reports and then big players moved in and pushed it up in no time. It wouldn't be wise to play against the puppet masters imho.
Yea I'm flat for now. It may run the topside stops above 3430 being touted but not expecting a huge run ahead of FOMC or Jackson Hole which may be a non-event from what I gather. The FED will start to taper but i's not like they are cutting QE in the grand scheme (consensus is for 20bln), and the ECB will continue their forward guidance as well. Not seeing any rate hikes in the near future for either of them. The FED doesn't want to kill equity markets I'm sure. We have elections in Germany, and a new FED chairman soon. Prefer playing USD/JPY, AUD/USD and some Euro crosses for now in FX land. Maybe some USD/CAD for a long USD play if that matures as CAD data has been weak.