I think my OP got misconstrued. I simply meant to ask has anyone used an ET poster (or the ET posts in general) as a contrarian indicator. If the majority of the ET board is bullish on US equites, has anyone used that as a sign to go short? Also, if someone has a propensity to make losing trades, has anyone faded that person's reccomendation.
<i>"I think my OP got misconstrued. I simply meant to ask has anyone used an ET poster (or the ET posts in general) as a contrarian indicator. If the majority of the ET board is bullish on US equites, has anyone used that as a sign to go short? Also, if someone has a propensity to make losing trades, has anyone faded that person's reccomendation."</i> Fair enough. In that case, where would the entry point be? Where would the profit exit - stop protection be? Do we monitor the fade trades based on our own management scale, or exit when the person = group we fade changes their mind? The whole idea of being contrarian is natural, logical human assumption. Fading an extreme does have merit... using any one of numerous broad market measures such as VIX, COT report, RYDEX fund flows, put-call ratios and a host of others. Fading one person who may/may not be on a temporary string of losses is ludicrous. Fading a vocal minority in any website is far too small a sample size to assume it is the marketplace majority rule.
i always crack a warm smile when i see certain ppl here asserting themselves in the opposite direction of a position i've got some of these guys are just serial failures with absurd denial issues, sorta like an obnoxiousness to correctness ratio
<b>BDGBDG</b>, I apologize profusely if my posts seemed the least bit hostile to you. That was an assumption of mine which interpreted your question as being meant to incite. After all, can you imagine a response post being, "I fade John Smith all the time... works great for me!" If that were offered in all sincerity, how do you think it'd be received? So, apologize for a seemingly curt tone. Without any emotion involved, the pure answer is purposely fading anyone other than a quantified majority group is pure folly. Hope this helps :>) Austin
No offense taken. My question was in response to a thread I was reading, and the idea of using the posters as a contrarian indicator arose. Everyone was bearish on a certain stock. I thought about buying some premarket, which I did not do. The stock is down significantly.
I would be glad to post my trades as a fade. I would expect to be compensated though if you make money. I think many people both fade and trade along with, don't make me say it, Cramer .The master of half truths. Does he still have a desk at Goldman or a little red phone like in Batman? I think if you can find the worst trader and start a newsletter you can definitely make money. ET has some candidates; you know who you are. Will he or she always be wrong though. I would need someone to be wrong at least 70% of the time to be interested. Buy the way short GOOG, cover at $85.00.