This is what its looking like now. Oil is key to the turnaround. Notice how the bottom of oil in 2002 marked the end of the recession and the bottom to the market. Will this bottom in oil mark the end of this recession and the bottom in the market? Attached is the SnP chart indicating probably a triple bottom. It would be nice to think this is the pivot point but it usually takes 2.5 years to really flush a bear market and we are only 1 year into this. I have also found it usually takes 2-3 quarters for the "bottoming process" to take place. For example, in 2002-2003 it took 2-3 quarters of sideways action. This chart was taken from the "ball" site.
OIL is not going to find a bottom until it drops below $30, my old price target of $50 is just dollars away, I really think oil is headed down alot further, I think $20-$25 a barrel is a possibility over the next 2 years, the demand is not there and will not be there for years to come due to the global recession that is going to be worse than any recession we have seen, oil will drop below $50 and eventually $40, I really think it bottoms around $20-$25 a barrel.
As I uploaded my chart of the snp, I looked up to see the snp trading at 847 slicing through that 850 mark on the chart. If oil drops below 55-56, then that 10 year trend line will indeed be broken and there will be no support. I can imagine 10 dollars a barrel with the price meeting back at 1998 lows. However, we have not violated that trend line just yet....