ET as a Special Case of the Turing Test

Fully realizing that this is casting swearls before pine, I just read a great line in a novel: "I know very little. But I know a great deal about it."

 

I give up. Teach me something.

 

Metaphorically speaking, legion are the ET posters possessing only a hammer, for whom every new thread represents a nail.

 

And it is a sledgehammer.

 

I've always felt the urge to, but change my mind at the last minute.

Ok, I've changed my mind, in response to the question of "how to hedge ... so if I call 911 someone comes?": this is some kind of think-out-of-the-box quiz, deadbroke used to ask these all the time too. They're good fun. I think the answer will be something like:
- call friend/relative/taxi after calling 911
- own the hospital/ambulance
- send out flash mob tweet to your location
these will increase the probability "someone" comes to your emergency and hedges against no one coming for very little incremental cost.
I hope I pass the this Turbing Test and got close to the answer

 

Thanks. I like that! I can only add to the 911 call "There's a crazy man with a gun!"

 

Dumb is any person scoring in the 40th percentile or less on ASVAB. Stupid is any person below 20th percentile/ASVAB & 10 raw/ACT.

 

Maybe my own view of my own intelligence is much higher than it actually is, or, as it appears to an external party. I suspect everyone thinks similarily of their own abilities, believing their own skills are much higher than is the reality. I do remember this being a topic of a recent paper.

Is that what you are getting at?

I would venture a hypothesis here: the ability to accurately assess oneself (and one's skill) is directly proportional to ones intelligence... performance aside; hence the post direcly above mine by a user registered in Jul 2008.

Mike

 

You are remembering the Dunning-Kruger Effect post by one of ET's most prominent examples of it:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=202114&highlight=dunning

In fact I started this thread because I wanted to discuss how you to determine quickly if a poster really understands trading or just thinks he does. Dunning-Kruger complicates this because people who really know their stuff tend to be modest because they know what they don't know.

About assessing your own intelligence, I am really smart about somethings, and that leads me to think that I am way smarter than I am about other things. In fact I stumble over my own stupidity several times a day, like a seam in a carpet.

 

Dunning-Kruger Effect шы умукнцруку