DAX: Times (EST) Start 3am, finish 2pm (Europe 8 am , 7pm) Contract value 25 Euros approx $20 Tick size 0.5 points Margin (Euros) day 5625, overnight 1125 Eurostox 50 same times Contract size 10 Euros $8 Tick size 1 point Margin 1875, 3750 as Dax
I have been trading the DAX live for one month ( and one day) and am sure not having your results. I trade from around 5:30 am CST until 8 or 8:30. For the month of Oct, my results were 37% wins and 63% losses with avg win of $67+ and avg loss of 107+. What I am finding out is that either I do not make good entries or (most often) I get stopped out before the market moves in the direction I had wanted. Use 4 point stops, but volitility usually gets me in 1-2 candles (1min). You say you can make 30-40 points with 3.5 point stops,which then leads me to my method. Use the same method as on the ES and had a 60% win on ES in Oct. As an example, yesterday the DAX wasup over 100 points (60 of that before I wake up) and yet I made three trades for a combined loss of 14.5 points Any ideas??
It all depends on your setup. But a 4 point stop is often very tight, it could be compared to a 2-3 tick stop on ES. I am not implying that you cannot trade the DAX profitably with a 4 point stop in certain market conditions. But you will have to make near perfect entries and then let it run for some more points. But it does not make much sense to give you any ideas, if i do not know anything about your strategy. From your post I see that your average win is only about 3 ticks, so maybe you have to let it run a bit in your direction.
Well I run 1 minute charts with a buy signal based on 3 simple ma (H,L,C)/3 crossover of the 5 simple MA of the 3 and MACD >MACD prior (12e, 26 e, 9 simple). I also run a 3 simlpe ma of a 5,13 True strength index , a 20 Keltner 2.5 std dev band and 9 and 22 ma channels . Bars are coloured dark red (close below 9 and 22), light green (close >9 and 22) and all other bars dark green/light red depending on whether up or down. I also have light green/red dots to signify cci 6,3 turning up or sown from -100/+100 My system also counts the no of consecutive bars up/down and warns when the count is 5 or greater by an exclamation mark.. after 7 there will definitely be a pause or reversal.. Frankly it is complex but the DAX moves so quickly you must automate as much as possible.. I also will set 5 point targets in choppy sideways motion but in longer moves will open stops to 5 and set a 1 point trailing stop. (I have often been stopped out on a 10 point spike and immediate retracement getting 5 points of the move.) All entries and exits are market orders except in very slow markets.. the possibility of being left with an unfilled limit order when the market moves 10 points away is too horrendous to risk..It's better to be filled losing 2 points than 10...
I am not sure from what you wrote just what you use as a stop. Also, you are right about your system being complex. I traded it agsain today with better results, but still getting stopped out too often. As I said, I do just fine on the S&P, but the DAX I have not mastered yet. Thanks for your input. BP
Well I reversed my shorts at 3.55pm UK time -10.55EST- and went long at 3715. with a 5 point stop with 1 point trailing stop. (A clear reversal just looking at the chart/volumes. )Was stopped out at just after 4.122pm at 3724 as price fell below 9ma and reversal signal.-+9. Then short and stopped out -4 at 4.29pm ish. Then long again at 3723 at 4.33pm (11.33EST).Stopped out at 3754 on the blowoff top as it spiked to 3760 at 4.50pm (11.50EST). Gain of +31 points. Stopped trading then .. expected consolidation.. 3 trades +9,-4,+31 = +36
I trade them all and not really competent to describe trend characteristics or describe why I open a DAX/ESTX/Bund trade - it's just something you see after you watch them for awhile which is the point of this post. Put these on your screen with ES, NQ, YM or whatever other indices you trade and just keep an eye on them for a month or so. After a time, you'll see a level on the DAX or ESTX where it just jumps out at you - "They're all wrong!" One time I like is around 5AM EDT. Because there is so much volume I think of it as pretrading the US markets. I suggest CNBC Europe if you can get it which is much more serious than our CNBC. Also, CNN-Money site has a listing of US stocks traded in Frankfurt which has been a money tree for me for years. Finally, I use IB, and I often switch to % during the day just to keep the different level of the indexes in synch. Geo.