Today's a good example of the point I was trying to make above. Technically, there was no trend in place until we made a lower high and a lower low. Whether or not you can find one depends on the bar interval you choose, but a 5m chart will show both. So, did the trend "begin" at 1448? No, it didn't, though the "seed" for the trend was there due to the fact that the PDH was important (as was the PDH for the ES), that there was also a pivot level there, and that we haven't reached the ADR for several days. Therefore, a short at the first sign of weakness becomes a higher-probability entry than just jumping in because you feel the price is "too high", even though it is a counter-trend entry. As for the trend itself, the marubozus are good signals or keys or indications that a trend is likely to manifest itself, particularly since price couldn't make it back more than halfway through the bar, making an MA an appropriate stop. On a day like this, tho, one is justified in getting to BE and just leaving it the hell alone since the probabilities are for a trend day. If the trend day doesn't materialize, he will at least get something out of it. If it does, he will capture most of the move. This is, of course, assuming all-in-all-out. If trading multiple contracts with varying tactics, there are many more options for managing the trade.