Establishing a trend

When it comes to trend, tho, an MA is just a substitute for a trendline. Plus, using a trendline avoids the whole issue of what length the MA ought to be and whether it ought to be exponential or simple, etc, etc. If the trendline is broken, the MA is probably irrelevant.

 

This is exactly the problem - getting an entry point when using a 10 min bar. I'll try the 5 minute from here, and keep a 1 and 3 minute to try and "anticipate" the 5 minute.

Thx
KB

 

and the previous higher low (from 12pm) wasn't taken out anyway, so why SAR?

 

Here's today's graph attached.

I've gone to 5 minute to help with entry, with assistance from a 1 and 3 minute to try and anticipate where the 5 minute candle is gonna end up.

Pretty good day to trade the trend, patterns easy to pick even on the 5 minute.

 

You'll have to ask funky.

 

i was suggesting using a method with the 20 sma as your trigger. forget about the 12pm low. the 1:30 low, which breaks the 20 sma is your trigger. there are two ways to reverse position now. wait until a retest of the high that gave way to the break of that 20 sma, with a stop on other side (5 sma should not violate that high), or you could reverse as that low is broken. like others have said, the preferred method would be to take the former exit/entry since breakouts rarely have as good of risk/reward parameters as retracements do.

 

What evidence do you have to support this statement?

 

well, if you are serious about using multiple timeframes, check out the daily chart with the 5,20,40 on it. that 1130 bounce was right off of the 20 sma on the daily (and a floor pivot, and yesterday's low!). must be aware of these things -- they are a dead giveaway most of the time.

and why do you not trade the first half hour? yesterday's high was a perfect place to enter at about 935. there was a floor pivot there as well! easy money!!

keep up the good work

 

i was speaking in relative terms vs. trading retracements.

 

However, none of this has to do with trading trends, which is based on lower/higher lows, lower/higher highs, reaction lows and highs, swing points, trendlines. Moving averages are useful only in the sense that they are moving trendlines. The "bounce off the 20sma" probably had less to do with the MA than it did with the previous half-day's congestion at that level. The instances of MA non-support on the daily are far greater than the instances of support. Therefore, one must look elsewhere for the reasons.