ES→SPX ≈ 3pts! Here comes the interest rates!

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by tommcginnis, Nov 3, 2017.

  1. That answer would probably say more about my faith in humanity than accurate reflecting typical comprehension levels.
    #11     Nov 3, 2017
  2. sle


    Nah, the majority of the basis variation comes from dividends dropping off. The effect of expected changes in rates is very minor.
    Simple math - 1 point of SPX basis is about 4 bps. Dec FOMC is on 12th, say there are 10 days left from it to expiration. That would mean that a 1 pt change in basis implies an over a 100bp change in interest rate.
    #12     Nov 3, 2017
    tommcginnis likes this.
  3. alexpun


    It is either caused by dividend or interest rate. I looked at the CME FOMC tool but I think nothing had really changed in rate hike probability?
    #13     Nov 3, 2017
  4. Pekelo


    Says the guy whose half of his posts is one word: FALSE as an argument. :)
    #14     Nov 4, 2017
  5. tommcginnis


    While I agree whole-heartedly with the observation (especially as I had completely forgotten this sort-of effect :rolleyes: ), I am troubled by the fact that I've been watching ES→SPX for years and years, and have only recently seen the discount *increase* as the ES aged. (Recently being..... the last 6 months? maybe 9?? That would cover MAR/JUN/SEP..... +/- DEC.....) Every other ES expiry (as remembered) was a monotonic decline.

    Funky. Thanks for the post, sle -- I'll be looking for more evidence (and keeping my ears open and eyes peeled) going forward.
    #15     Nov 7, 2017
  6. tommcginnis


    And this morning, we're back to nearly 2.00 pts between 'em.

    One month to go; still seems a bit low for the last decade, but about 'as expected' for the last 4Qs.
    #16     Nov 13, 2017
  7. I ain't an expert, but I would agree with sle... Interest rates don't really make that much of a difference, while dividends do. Looking where the divvy futures are, it would seem that it's all fair.
    #17     Nov 13, 2017
  8. tommcginnis


    cash 2568.86
    DEC 2567.50
    1.36pts., with ~ one month to go.
    #18     Nov 15, 2017
  9. Buy1Sell2


    Vague as the Las Vegas shooter police report.
    #19     Nov 15, 2017
  10. tommcginnis


    YOW! On the eave of a tax bill vote,
    cash 2583.03
    DEC 2582.35
    0.68 pts., with that one month to go.
    #20     Nov 16, 2017