ESP Experiment :)

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by igorip204, May 29, 2009.

  1. Clifford Pickover ESP Experiment

    ...I am conducting a fascinating ESP experiment.
    Recent statistics suggest that my system can predict
    the correct outcome of your choice with 98% accuracy.

    Comments are full of gret market lessons.
    It's a must read for any serious trader :D :D :D

    From "Smith, G. (Greg)
    It is soooo easy! You used the elementary mathematical equilibrium formula to find the commonality (or to be mathematically correct, the intercept) between possibility and probability. If you had enough transactional history across all permutations, you would be able to easily formulate the equilibrium equation for the card "trick". If you had asked at least 100 different people a day (everyday) to pick a card over a period of no less than 5 years, you would have accumulated enough history (obviously you recorded their choices) to apply the equilibrium formula retroactively to the recorded possible choices and the recorded probable choices, to achieve a 98% successful estimation formula using Euler's totient theorem. This equilibrium formula is used extensively in economics for example to calculate the equilibrium price of goods (i.e. the intercept of the linear graph depicting the price consumers are prepared to pay for goods, and the price producers are demanding for those same goods). The quantity of goods in circulation is another example (i.e. supply vs. demand). Nice try Cliff, but we don't think our computers are psychic. We might not know a lot about computers on a technical level, but we know enough about mathematics to know how you did it. You can't fool a couple of maths grads that easily... Sorry, Cliff. Better luck next time.

    From: "D. Lee"
    Mr Watson, I consider myself an amateur, though enthusiastic, astro-numerologist. Basically, I believe much widely-considered 'supernatural' phenomena is actually a logical numerical pattern intimately linked to planetary orbits and rising constellations, which many times are hidden to us. These schemes dominate much of our behavior, and most likely control higher-order communication between all forms of life. We have given sundry names to this: ESP, sixth-sense, telepathy, but it describes the same truth. I am very excited about your experiment, because I feel you have hit upon the core of this communication. Somehow you have interpolated the astro-numerical process and extracted its function, allowing you to "guess" which card I selected, when it's obvious you simply "listened" to the super-dimension dialogue I was having with you. Looking through your code, I see nothing extraordinary, which is even more mind-boggling, I can barely believe you have simplified it so. But that is great news. I understand you would not want this breakthrough to leak out, because mankind is a master our behavior, and make first contact with other beings in our Universe before truly understanding their nature. Your secret is safe with me, but realize I appreciate your greatness, your unprecedented brilliance, as this card experiment reveals, given its 100% accuracy. Of course, it could also be that because....

    From: Stuart Mitchell :
    I believe that the reason you are always able to pick the correct card to remove has its roots in the same mathematics that brought us digital signal processing as well as some simple geometry. I am hypothesizing that you are using a combination of high resolution timers as well as a high sampling rate on the mouse position. The concept is simple. Each card is located at a specific angle from the eyes. It is important to note that even if you are not using the mouse as a pointer to the card you want to choose, it is still going to have very slight movements that will follow your eye movements. So as long as the following are taken into account, it is easy to monitor and calculate which card to remove. 1) Each card's angle to each eye must be unique, and so should each distance. 2) The sampling rate of your mouse is above the nyquist frequency for the optical spectrum.
    Taking this into account, all you have to do is monitor the mouse movements over time right before one of the eyes are clicked. Depending on which eye was clicked, you can measure the trajectory of the mouse prior to the click. It will either have moved from the card, or had the same angle of the card when the person took one last glance at it before they clicked the eye. Of course, you can calculate the distance when you realize that the actual distance the eye moved is going to be a multiple of the time that it took that trajectory and the velocity of the eye movements. Obviously, the eye velocity will be an the inverse of its own sampling frequency times the distance it traveled when it was measured. The trick is that it was measured on the previous page when it was moved from a cleverly placed point on the page to one of the other eyes. I see no other way that this could be accomplished given the constraints of our technonogy. For some, your trick may seem like ESP. But to others, it can be demystified. Clever concept nonetheless. Samuel
  2. sjfan


    Neat trick. If you actually save all the cards in the first screen, you'll notice all the cards are different in the second screen.

    So the way it works is simple: it relies entirely on confirmation bias. You only notice that it worked for your pick, but not that it failed for everything else.

    Still, very neat.