I hate to keep posting on this .. but right now.. 13:59 est.. the ES is at 1156.00.. which is the previous high.. my stochastics is showing a divergence.. but I will wait for a reversal signal before entering..
I shorted the ES at 1156.75.. but bailed at 1156.50 when it looked like it wasn't going down.. my target is only 1.5 pts away so figured the risk/reward wasn't there to hold the trade..
I haven't tested it in the sense of marking down every trade.. calculating the win/loss ratio, #of winners, avg. $ of winner.. etc.. My testing is basically from watching the market for over 2 years.. studying patterns and seeing which ones are profitable.. On your testing/trading db, I know you trade using support/resistance.. how were you able to test that.. by going thru old charts by hand or do you have a way to quantify it??
thx, I see that now.. we may blow right past it in a few.. or it may turn around and go down?? Man.I'm a genius
I had my hand on the button to short the NQ at 1515.00 but chickened out. not enough of a move down to beat myself up over it though.. and part of my rules are not to trade the last 1/2 hour.. so at least I stuck to my rules..
"Testing" means coming up with a preliminary methodology, then going over chart by chart, day by day, bar by bar, determining whether or not your "signals" tell you to do the right thing at the right time. Trying to remember what seems to have worked over the past two years isn't testing. Even verified signals aren't enough, as setups don't look the same in real time as they do in hindsight. Given your situation, I'm surprised that you're still clinging to your approach. I suggest you learn how to develop a strategy before putting any more real money at risk.