If reality is far away from expectations we see that in the size and the speed of the move. Those who trade reality make money, those who trade expectations lose money. Expectators help realists to become rich.
Nope you are too soon unless you hit lucky with a terror attack. A lot of retail have been shorting and will continue to short this run up. Its not dropping until end of summer when elections loom. I would wait for the new ATHS and exhaustion highs thin move thats where big money will be exiting. Then bank and run for the hills. They will have to do more QE or let it drop.
i agree with OP in that i'm bearish. as for an actual # of point drop, the S&P low @1800s was last seen in august 2015 and a couple months ago in feb 2016. in fact february saw slightly lower lows than last august. it wouldn't be surprising if we saw even lower lows than 1800, which would result in over 300point drop. the #s i'm posting here are S&P cfd prices. i've been actively shorting the s&p in the first couple weeks this month. successfully made money on the short side. was out of the way in recent bull run up to 2100. i did manage to catch another short position at about 2100 and closed out thursday @2083. to me last week's (april 18 to 21) price action looks like a short squeeze. before any major move down i think there should be some consolidation at around these levels. any run up is a short opportunity. the risk to the short strategy is if some how the bulls manage push markets high enough to clear 2110 (last winter highs) or 2130 (all time highs). then it could be a massive breakout in which case i'd go long. i agree with other posters here about trading price action.
I'm just gonna follow the current trend and continue to go long today. If and when the trend changes to down, i will go short.
In the US at least 100 times more people get killed every year by Americans who have a gun then by terrorists. At this moment US citizens are the terrorists. For clear understanding: I am not a muslim, but I live in Europe and see, like most Europeans the madness of the Americans walking, and shooting around everywhere they go. More Americians get killed instead of protected by guns. Yesterday again shooting in school in Langlade County. Business as usual.
If you can master this well you found the wholly grail. But most people don't realize this. And "realize" should be read in two ways: they don't know it they cannot achieve it