Well, I thought this debate for me was over. Now I am gonna sound like a nut job. I ran Sim on NQ and backtested and the results looked great. Better profits than ES. Went live with NQ this week... it has been very inconsistent for me. Results are not even close to what was in Sim. I am doing exactly what I was in Sim but getting whipped out of trades and hitting stops. Yes, I have tried wider stops. while there are more dramatic moves on NQ, it may not suit my trading personality. Thoughts? Who has switched from one to the other? what is your take on it.
true, very true... maybe I trade both NQ and ES... gotta make some decisions I have a monster headache... need to take a break from all this... study charts later
You've done way too little study. I said earlier in a thread that you simply need to learn more and you accused me of being negative. But that remains true. You don't yet know enough to trade live.
Its funny because right when you switch to the NQ, @speedo switched to the ES. Of course you're using different strategies I'm sure, but its just interesting. With regards to widening stops, this gets very tricky. If you widen your stop just 1 point, imagine how much more you need to make over the long term. Sure that extra point might save a few trades from stopping out, but when you add on an extra point for every trade that fails, it adds up to lots of points. The NQ is a bit of a bitch to trade because you simply cannot wait for any confirmation. If you want to see a move start, its now 5 points from where you should have gotten in. Now your stop has to be over 5 points wide, which as you're seeing is quite wide. Once you got a trade going against you $60, $80, $100, you all of a sudden realize you don't want to use that wide of a stop. Now since you're using 5 points stops, you need at the very least 5 points profit, but if you're getting in once its moved 5 points, you're essentially wanting it to go straight in your direction 10 points, the 5 you need to see first, and the 5 additional you need for your profit. As you've noticed, these 5 point moves happen very quickly, and this same $100 for 5 NQ points is 2 ES points, which sometimes takes many minutes, so this requires a huge psychological change. With the NQ, using small stops requires that you're getting into trade before you even have any idea if it will work or not. When you think about it though, you never have any idea if a trade will work or not. Once you actually see it working in the NQ, this is now the most dangerous place to get in, unless you're using a wide stop, which is not always the right thing to do. In my opinion, trading really requires you to get into a move where you think it might work, but in an area where you have no idea. At least if it fails, you have a tight stop, and hopefully it failed in an area where you thought it wouldn't dip into since you got in so early. If you wait for that confirmation, a different set of fears kick in, and with the NQ, those fears are usually realized as it goes against you right away.
Gotcha... I have used stops of 7 or even 8/9 for NQ... yes you are right. What takes a while to work for you or against you on ES takes just minutes or less on NQ. I am just not sure if that is gonna fit my personality. sure the ES is slow, but I think that can be good
I much prefer nq over Es. IMO ES when you need the liquidity but for up to 30-50 contracts other markets fit my personality much better (cl, nq etc.)
1) How far back (historical data) did you back test on Emini NQ futures and Emini ES futures ? 2) How long did you simulate trade Emini NQ futures ? Now you know the real deal as many have warned you prior to going live. It's too soon, some don't believe you've proper backtested and others don't believe you've properly simulator traded to prepare you for real money trading in Emini NQ futures. The main usefulness of simulator trading is the help you understand the trading platform you're using and to become comfortable with the trading platform prior to any real money trades. I bet if someone watched you simulate trade in Emini NQ futures for a few months and then do the same duration for watching you trade real money Emini NQ futures... Note: There's a hint in the above paragraph. They'll quickly see what you're doing differently that you don't even realize or underestimated. These differences is the same reasons why traders using the exact same trade method and trading the same trading instrument can have dramatic differences in their trade results... Some are profitable while others are losers. That key element is the trader and how his/her persona interacts with the markets. This is a reason why others decide to automate their trading...to minimize the impact of a trader that's not automated. Lastly, if your backtesting was done properly...you'll know a few days of live real money trading in Emini NQ futures is really nothing as stated by algofy. Whatever you do...if you had backtested properly, simulated traded properly and you have not changed anything when you went live trading with real money... Don't play the newbie mistake via starting to tweek (make changes) to your trade method after only 3 days of real money trading experience via your trade method. Your back test results should have enough information about how your current live stats compare to the historical stats of your trade method. If your results are within the norm of the losing days or poor performance duration identified in your backtest results... There's nothing to worry about the 3 days of trading performance.
I know you may have been practicing before your join date of June 9 but realistically you will just be giving us your money unless you achieve some decent proficiency benchmark. A few days here and there, can I go live? nope. Your trying to fly a old helicopter here. Smart, brave, calm and motivated, yep and dead just the same as the stupid guy without a LOT of deliberate and focused practice. As was suggested to me on ES which I started with and I achieved, after six months of sim full time, have six weeks documented trades with no off-plan stuff, no 'mulligans'. Reset like a days since accident to zero when you screw up to add some realistic anxiety. You must never cheat against yourself. When you have six profitable weeks, consider live. YM correlates tightly with ES however YM generally smoother. I'd learn on ES as it is more difficult and you need to trade with the context of the dominant market. A monthly high can be just a bump on YM and a brick wall on ES for example. You could place trades on YM using ES signals (and some judgement).
I tried to trade the ES, while I do like it and it has logic attached to it, I have a hard time working on some trades. I do hate that the ES ranges a lot, can be very tight, prone to relentless tricky channels and that it is hard to get filled at times, especially when fading. I follow the NQ a lot because it's correlated to the ES pretty well. I think I like the NQ more - it moves more and the tick sizes are smaller - I sometimes trade at the market and this really costs me in ES. This is only one day however I am very happy with how I did (equiv of 6 points in ES). The last two days kicked my ass (didn't sustain heavy losses but i hated being down for so long by betting against the bull channel) in the ES so today I switched to the NQ. (note - i am by no means a great trader - still a novice but working to improve) I entirely used stops in NQ (which i really prefer, in ES stop entries hurt too much emotionally at least for me and i ten to get in trouble with limit orders) and these were my trades today. Second short was a mistake as my connection died off while I had a sell limit in the market (i sometimes leave limits but if a move is too strong I trail above (in case of a sell limit) until I find weakness) and i had to restart my computer and luckily the market went a little lower for me to get out, for some reason both my bracket orders on that trade weren't on so I was fully exposed. In short, if you're a good trader both can be traded well, they have small differences though 1) Short - should have held longer 2) Mistake when my trading platform crashed on me - got out with ~30 bucks profit 3) Long - scalped out 4) Short - saw market weakening and shorted below a bull bar where bulls would exit in case market fell breaking below a double bottom 5) Looked for a pullback to short but didn't like the reversal and got out out BE 6) Long - Didn't feel comfortable - got out with with a little 7) Short - Also didn't like the set up too much - last two trades were a little unnecessary but if i held longer they wold have provided at least a scalp profit