Is there a thread containing a full description of neutral, str & squ? Jack, can you do a another drawing, like the great drawing in your post yesterday, describing the INDU/YM relationship? Thanks for the great thread everyone!
I should have searched first for a description of squeeze, indu & Ym. I found a good description on another related thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=422643&highlight=indu+AND+SQUEEZE#post422643
Thanks for your post explaining the role of the '2 pairs and a spike'. Also thanks for the excellent diagram you appended. You have said "Fast trends occur @10K vol or better on 5 min charts. Slow paces are @ 4.5k vol or better on 5 min." Do these rates apply to the 5 min bar INDU chart? Can you elaborate? You have said "What you see mostly on the INDU/YM04M comparison is that the offset goes to neutral at the end of a trend. During most longs it stays in squeeze; during most shorts, it stays in stretch." What are the values currently for squeeze, neutral and stretch? Would you elaborate further on the operational uses of this measurement? Grob, all this takes your time, so I appreciate very much any replies you may give. Again, many thanks.
Thanks for all the follow on and the help many provided. I sometimes slip here and there in being prompt. Below are some comments to back up the help already provided. I use a market log to get myself calibrated daily vis a vis the neutral offset. If fact my schedule lately is one where someone provides it to me as part of their mentoring. As I am monitoring with another, they gradually take command. The INDU/YM04M neutral is extremely important. Fromthere a trend steps out with YM04M leading the way usually. This gives an advance warning squeese or stretch and the trade begins. before this coarse measurements are there as well. The channel status and STOC (5,2,3) and MACD give you coarse status. I attached a 9 cell matrix to help out. The arrows (blue for long, red for short) are the two main themes. At (1) you have the right to enter. (2) confirms and (3) is the continuation status. There are times when you do see INDU move and YM04M does not maintain a relative offset. This is a "caution" for me and I immediately check the PRV for "lack of "acceleration". This is the middle three horizontal cells listed across from NO CHANGE for YM04M. I am stating these things to have you see the minimalistic approach. That means I am checking for the single things that I need to get ready for what is next. For something to begin we need volume to "push". So if I see medium and fine signals that could be leading precoursors, I jump to "acceleration" and "acceleration" being maintained to get everything else to fall in line and "continue". This is the starting of "continuation" and moving off sides of channels and even beginning channels. For entry follow the 1, 2, 3, notation sequence on the bold arrows. What ends money making ultimately is that smart money goes lateral (to unchanging) which is neutral. This happens for medium and slow trends on the traverses as well. The lime arrows show the sequence of a LONG ending. The orange arrows show the sequence of a Short ending. Reversals and spikes are the pink lines that spring from squeese to stretch (or vice versa) as the YM04M one unit MA "hinges" from one direction to the other direction with no lateral section. The pink "goes" into the lateral arrows and they take over. As you can imagine, with skill, you get faster than the market in performance. There is never a time to be a "hair trigger". To not become a "hair trigger", conduct your self by always, in self talk, telling yourself what you are looking for to "continue". We are moving to "anticipation" as an opposite of "reaction". We also are operating from the viewpoint of "beliefs" instead of either "hope" or "fear". As you can see from the matrix, there is always something to look for next. you will be sitting in the upper left and lower right cells most of the time. Look to get to them , hold, and as you hold look for the two possibilities that end the hold. As a by product, you can also use this very effectively when you are approaching the right trend line. If you are skilled you are in a trade as you approach. the line is approached AFTER a trend has ended and you are in the next one (slaloming prehaps), as you go through you continue to "hold" and make money. If a point 1 has not occurred (As a result of a failure to traverse) you are looking for a right to left traverse, yet one more time.
INDU is refreshed every two seconds. Since automated arbitrage programs work faster than that, what do you think is happening to cause the discernible lags between INDU and YM which you exploit?
Grob- Watching the INDU/YM today I noticed that there was a period from bar 53 to bar 62 (on the 5 minute ES) where the was a noticeable constnat squeeze on but the trend was clearly down. I have neutral for today around 17.5 or so. Any thoughts would be appreciated. JT
I look at things from several levels of consideration. My personal emphasis is to try to slow down and not be giving any more importance to the "very short term " phenomena. I like seeing the end of the INDU bar plugging away as it does. The YM04M flaps at abot twice the pace of the INDU bar changes. So the context for me is to observe coarsely and skim to the INDU/YM04M as a medium measure. The acceleration of volume I do measure every 30 sec or so and I look to see if the acceleration is being sustained by "pinwheeling". What I see on the DOM is "snapshots" at 0.7sec intervals. This is my fine vernier. It does not work all the time, especially on high volume fast paced channels (over 12K I would guess). Today is one that is equivalent to several average days as measured by activity. Therefore, the monitoring is a challenge because the data feeds are "relativiely" slow for the action. I am not being too efficient it turns out. In absolute terms for making money the poor timing, lesser efficiency, and greater volatility and activity sort of balance out.
Jack, I had some difficulty with the am short trend because we had several FTTs and then the short trend continued. this happens ocasionaly when, corespondingly, the 15 min is in a rocket. I am figuring out how to recognize and handle it. my problem may lay somewhat in relying on corse data as I have trouble with the medium ym/indu aspects, and haven't started to trade off of them (just learn them first). I recently started to take partial exits on the left sides of channels this helps alot with my P&L as I have been waiting for if2 conformation as my action point. I still can't recognize a ftt untill the 5 min bar breaks. I realize that this is because that is what I have defined as my action point. I then sequence from there to see a resumption using combinations of 3 bar sequences. this sequence works verywell after a ftt if2 and I can usualy wash back in no problem. The strong volume this morning put me one back untill a full traverse. This led to a reversal on the 10:50 bar. my sequences then led em to sidline and miss the remainder of the push down (had it rezoomed in teh second bar I would have reversed back short). I then tried the reversal long at 11:25- APA no problem I handled it. I then missed the actual reversal at 11:35 because I had 'given up' on the reversal (showing my EQ was not completly in ballance). looking back I feel that I should be able to recognize the pace and either not be stopped out or slalom the traverses. If I understood trend ending spikes in a ftt I could refine my trading to handle this. You mentioned seeing volume taper off on the 5 minute and then exiting on the spike as flaws play off, and the indu leads the spike the YM pulling back up. I am having trouble formulating a belief and building energy behind it to show a ftt before the IF2. you have told many traders to get away from the IF2 trades so I was hoping you could help me to see the seqence on a ftt before the 5 min IF2 and more importanly the flaws to the ftt so I would be able to recognize when I mistakenly read a FTT and it then continued. It sounds like this is what you are talking about in teh second parragraph I quoted above. You recently posted that when a channel is broken on the left side it is an exaustion/ climax run. does this always hold in the futures? This is a picture I am missing I believe because I draw trend channels ad nasuem and many hypothesized channels that I draw are outperformed. does this only hold if it you follow the pts 1,2,3 2nd pt3, from centering? again thank you so much for sharing your knowedge I can not express how significantly it has improved my trading.
The short version of my above post is that based on the volume I would expect the pace to tape on the 5 minute but it didn't. It did however on the 15 and I was looking for a clue to lead me back a fractal that wouldn't lead me to missing my ftt reversals as they are among my most consistantly lucrative trades.