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ES Trade Example Today

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Flashboy, Apr 27, 2004.

1contract
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NihabaAshi,

Thanks for your reply to my previous question relating to tick vs. raw volume.

Perhaps you would also help me with issue arising from your last post.

I've no problem with the idea of a price/indicator divergence or a price/volume divergence, but I'm struggling with the idea of a price only divergence. I know you've indicated that you don't want to put this on a plate for people - and I respect that - but can you give me a clue?

Thanks,
1c

#21 Apr 29, 2004

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Flashboy
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I've got to learn to be more patient..

As it is I"m trying to pick a bottom on a market that is trending down..and I'm way too anxious to get in..

Luckily I got my money that I lost back.. but I did have to double up to do it.. very dangerous I know..

I'm too hell beant on catching reversals... I wanted to get short at 14:05 est.. but I never pulled the trigger..

why is it its easier for me to pull the trigger against the trend that it is when its with the trend..??

#22 Apr 29, 2004

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Flashboy
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forgot to post the chart
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#23 Apr 29, 2004

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Grob109
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Quote from Flashboy:

Thanks Grob,

2 quick questions if you don't mind..

1. Where are you gettting your charts from ..my 60 minute chart only goes back to 4/1.. yours goes back to early Feb...

I use pairs of screens on each computer. I use q charts and then transfer to paint then do a save as that works for ET.

On qcharts I do the following:By narrowing the bars and narrowing their separation to a minimum width I squeese the time axis as much as possible. Then I pull the width of the chart across two full screens to attain as many bars as possible on the proper fractal (60 Min in this case to give me several bars a day).

I"grab" this result with grabascreen which gives a file that is accurate and will not owrk on ET. Going to paint and opening it, I then mark it up with what has been asked for by the person from his viewpoint. I save it in a format that works for the place it is going too.
The chart is wide because I needed to illustrate two LT's and also show the cyclic nature of failure to break out of Top of R. I also wanted to show that there is also a rational contrext for LT being a continer for LT traverses and that all IT channels doing the traverses also follow the construction of two parallel lines as a "true" and "bonefide" construct that can be "believed" and "trusted".

In ET, there is a pervasive mindset that the vast majority have which conveys that most people are in a mental shambles or funk as a consequence of mental anguish and stress. This may be a consequence of repeated failure.

By having 6 numbered incidents at Top of R incidents on the chart it becomes sort of clear that something is going on that may be "trusted" vis a vis LT and IT channels.

The illustration is crude and not refined. A viewer here who was helping me prepare to move notes on this stuff, understood it's value easily. for the humor of it, he was showing me how to move files on these trading topics. One location on one computer had 80 floppies to move. Three more machines to go. It appears I am getting surrounded at this point in my life with some helpers.

Since I can't do sustained tasks, piles of stuff are being set up for me to look at aleast.

This chart is a good one to spend time on and letting channels "soak in". All trading can be done with them as simple guides for continually making money with least effort.

I did not imagine that a person could not see a LT channel one way or another.

The 81 bars of each day form up by the same channel drawing rules and you just take money out as I appears.

2. You said you kept hitting T.. what is T?

T appears on IB's TWS trading platform. It is on red or blue colored rectangles on each row of potential trades that you may set up to trade. T stands for Trade.

If you click it, then it disappears and on the Trades box a print of the time and price and contracts and fill type appears. I do market trades so it happens as I say. Others can hit T and nothing happens except that they have a pending fill, if this or that... I put a great deal of emphasis on timing so I get filled at the time I hit T instead of any other thing. I keep a set of rows completed at all times. This selection lets me scale, sideline or reverse at any moment. If I am doing a lot of stuff, like on other machine as well, a person may just set me up again if the set of possible trades is missing rows that I may need for next profit taking. I am known to fudge from time to time; if exactly what I need isn't there I may go in very deep and wash back to where I want to be. There is a lot of humor around here some times.

Today I hit T 54 times. Usually in a day there is one fast paced tape, two medium paced trends and one slow paced trends. Today there were about six fast paced trends, no slow trends and the rest medium trends. The H/L of tuesday we had 11 points spread which established a goal of 33 points per contract. Today the goal was 63 points. Fast paced tapes, nail strings of points. But it turned out that the medium paced trends had tape traverses because of the high volume. This meant that doing PRV for acceleration and deceleration of volume as a leading indicator of price change was required. All decelerations lead to bar ends for traverses and ends of trends. With volumes similating fast market pace most of the day, a lot of time was spent monitoring DOM for reversals in lieu of simply entries or exits.

Here we use a vertical three column list (actually there are three lists labelled Coarse, Medium and Fine). Left column is a sequential list of what to look for. In the center is a column labelled: "What to say when you see it". Think of looking for a traffic light and seeing if it is red (monitoring). When you see it you say "we have to stop for the traffic light". The right column is titled "Hit T". If stopping for the traffic light involved a trade, the right column would be "shaded". That is a box is there and it is grey. Hit T is a big thing around here. We all hit T when we see a shaded bow in the right column. the box is labelled enter, exit or reverse. It begins or ends making profits in a channel or traverse.

I know this is a lot more than you wanted to know, sort of. But it may begin to illustrate the idea that you do get to a place sometime in trading where you just continually take money out of the market by doing a repeated action in response to a stimulous. The fun of it turns out to be continuing to optimize the actions. It was a drag today at times because of the action.

More...

#24 Apr 29, 2004

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Awash
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Quote from Flashboy:

I'm too hell beant on catching reversals... I wanted to get short at 14:05 est.. but I never pulled the trigger..

why is it its easier for me to pull the trigger against the trend that it is when its with the trend..??
More...

Flashboy,

Why? Well, itâs easier to pull the trigger against the trend when youâve conditioned yourself to do it, especially if thatâs your main strategy. At one time, my only signal was against the trend via a price-indicator divergence setup.

After losing more than winning, I realized I needed to research other ways to be successful on trend days. Next, I experimented with breakouts and other continuation patterns hoping to gain a foot-hole. I simulated for a month or two with these new signals and completely avoided taking divergence setups hoping this would condition and train myself not to go counter-trend. Guess what? It worked for me. I'm finally winning more than I'm losing!!!!

Nevertheless, I still play trend reversal setups but the other patterns has helped tremendously. Whatever happens, I wish you the best!! Keep researching and posting/searching this site as thereâs tons of good info here.

#25 Apr 30, 2004

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johncool
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Hi Grob,

I have found your chart to be very helpful, and I tried to papartrade it on Thursday. I made about 7 pts during the fast trend, and lost it all during the slower trend. I am a beginner and I lost on most of my days and my papertrade account show -$14,000. I will be extremely grateful if you could answer my question.
1) It is possible for you to attach a trade log of the 54 trades that you have made showing the times and prices traded ? I would like to plot it on my chart to learn where you have entered the trade. If you do not wish to show it here, for whatever reason, I respect you decision. However, could you please kindly consider PM it to me ?
2) What is the best way to display PRV (pro-rata volume) if I have IB TWS, QuoteTracker ? I do not have Qchart, or ESignal. Can I use Excel to calculate it ? How do you calculate the PRV ?

Thanks again for your great contribution

#26 Apr 30, 2004

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BA_Trader
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Quote from johncool:

2) What is the best way to display PRV (pro-rata volume) if I have IB TWS, QuoteTracker ? I do not have Qchart, or ESignal. Can I use Excel to calculate it ? How do you calculate the PRV ?

More...

If you subscribe to Qcharts you can install something called qlink
which allows you to link live data into excel. It is very handy.

I compute PRV *constantly* for each 5 minute period. Excel
figures out if volume is up or down since the last bar and the
pace (on a pro rata basis). I also do stretch/squeeze and other
bar characteristics -- it's all color coded. It's a great cheat
sheet and the info is available at a glance.

A note on qlink... you have to be sure that the server qlink
connects to is the same one your qcharts is connected to.

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=31578&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
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#27 Apr 30, 2004

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johncool
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Great job BA_Trader.
Your spreadsheet look impressive, though I don't understand every column on it. Would you mind attach the spreadsheet ? I will study your code to see how each column is done. I believe TWS supplies daily volume in realtime via DDE. Perhaps I can adapt your spreadsheet to work with TWS.

From your experience, how do those indicators work in real life ? Particular the stretch/squeeze indicator ? Do they work great and what is your favorite indicator on the spreadsheet ?

#28 Apr 30, 2004

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BA_Trader
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Quote from johncool:

Great job BA_Trader.
Your spreadsheet look impressive, though I don't understand every column on it. Would you mind attach the spreadsheet ? I will study your code to see how each column is done. I believe TWS supplies daily volume in realtime via DDE. Perhaps I can adapt your spreadsheet to work with TWS.

From your experience, how do those indicators work in real life ? Particular the stretch/squeeze indicator ? Do they work great and what is your favorite indicator on the spreadsheet ?
More...

It would be much easier to discuss the columns you are
wondering about -- the calculations are very simple... the qlink
references really junk up the code and the thing is completely
worthless without a live qlink connection (think all 0s).

I'm really using it as a belief honing tool more than an indicator.
You can get everything on the spreadsheet by looking at the PV
chart... stretch/squeeze is the only thing that takes some doing.

The biggest aha moment I've had with that spreadsheet is that
fast paced trends are extremely easy. I was told this but now
I believe it. Medium and slow paced trends will have hitches
and 'new pt3s' that require frequent (for me) protective action.
I'm simply not ready for this. After observing the spreadsheet
I can cut out the wishful thinking and simply sideline and wait for
fast trends.

Anyway -- I'm happy to discuss any aspect of the spreadsheet
that you want to know more about.

JT

#29 May 1, 2004

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Kap
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I use something frightingly similar - via esignal, with some vba code capturing 3 minute segments and conditional statements colour coding cells.

Do you have 5 min ontime macros running to capture periods or does your qlink dde allow u to slect periods via cell formulas alone.

Tia, Kap.

#30 May 1, 2004

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