ES to 1181.25 by September?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TGregg, Jul 25, 2005.

  1. TGregg

    TGregg

    Here's my first market prediction. You'd be a flaming lunatic to trade on any of my predictions, I can't even tell you what the market's gonna do in the next hour, let alone the next couple of months.

    Being a true American, a lack of ability doesn't even slightly reduce my desire to express my opinion, so here it is. In an effort to imitate good ideas which are simple, here's a very simple chart. It's a bar chart of ES during market hours (9:30 - 4 Eastern). There's a gap from 1181.25 to 1183.75 which occured overnight between 5/17 and 5/18.

    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=800132>

    Thing is, these gaps nearly always close. Scrolling back 5 years, I only see 2 gaps that didn't close, both coming off of the double bottom in mid-October 2002. Errr. whoops. Those gaps closed. but there was another coming off the 800 support test in mid March 2003 that didn't close. One gap failed to close over 5 years. Plus this other one.

    Something to think about. Good trading to everybody tomorrow.
     
  2. 1165 is my 50% to 50% level for my ratio trade, so I am looking at 16 points lower then 1181 for what I think the market will do in the next several months. October and November might be rough this year with a convergence of macro events.
     
  3. not going to say it cannot happen

    but overnight on 7/7 ( london bombing ) ES hit 1170 area

    and during the regular trading session

    ES did not come close to that area

    you really would need some unforseen catalyst

    to make the spoos sloppy in a few weeks time
     
  4. oil makes things slippery---------like slopes.
     
  5. T Gregg

    I agree... I thought that the bombings would trigger the eventual closure to that very gap...

    I think the market will need the reminder that intrest rate will continue to climb... dollar had to fall... and oil has to keep moving forward.

    As macro states... a lot of elements have to come in to play here

    On that note though I think that we are at the inflection point of this rally right here... 1135.25

    But who the hell know when this thing will stall.
     
  6. TGregg

    TGregg

    Almost there, Katrina's moving things along fast.
     
  7. do you have a dollar index or euro quote at the moment?
     
  8. TGregg

    TGregg

    Unfortunately not, that'd be interesting to see.
     
  9. EUR is 1.2344 +0.0049
     
    #10     Aug 28, 2005