ES System Evaluation

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by brad1970, Oct 19, 2002.

  1. brad1970

    brad1970

    Here are some stats on my trading system. This trades the ES on a 3 minute chart 1 contract and date from 10/7/02. Any insight is greatly appreciated.... Of course I know, at least, the short part of the system needs some tweaking!!

    Let me know if any further info is required..

    All Trades Long Short
    Net Profit $34.50 $59.75 $-25.25
    Profit per Bar $0.04 $0.15 $-0.06
    All Trades 68 31 37
    Avg Profit/Loss $0.51 $1.93 $-0.68
    Avg Profit/Loss % 0.07% 0.24% -0.08%
    Avg Bars Held 11.79 13.03 10.76
    Winning Trades 36 (53%) 19 (61%) 17 (46%)
    Gross Profit $132.75 $99.50 $33.25
    Avg Profit $3.69 $5.24 $1.96
    Avg Profit % 0.45% 0.64% 0.24%
    Avg Bars Held 8.89 11.11 6.41
    Max Consecutive 5 4 3
    Losing Trades 32 (47) 12 (39%) 20 (54%)
    Gross Loss $-98.25 $-39.75 $-58.50
    Avg Loss $-3.07 $-3.31 $-2.92
    Avg Loss % -0.38% -0.44% -0.35%
    Avg Bars Held 14.97 15.83 14.45
    Max Consecutive 7 3 4
    Max DrawDown $-48.25 $-23.25 $-42.25
     
  2. Hi,
    If you stay in trade for 30-40 min your average profit should be higher then figures you have posted. What kind of system is that, I mean what is based on ?
    Walter
     
  3. Am I right in reading that? Is your average profit per trade less than commissions?
     
  4. brad1970

    brad1970

    In my laziness, the dollar signs should have been removed.

    These are all ES points and not dollars.
     
  5. brad1970

    brad1970

    In my laziness, the dollar signs should have been removed.

    These are all ES points and not dollars.
     
  6. mdmbud

    mdmbud

    Is this one of your first systems you have created?
     
  7. brad1970

    brad1970

    I've been tinkering around with a bunch of stuff not really putting anything together until now. So simply, yes this is the first "real" system I have put together...
     
  8. dottom

    dottom

    With your avg. profit so close to your avg. loss (almost a 1:1 ratio), you'll want to see at least a 60% win rate, preferably 65%. You may also want to look at the effects of a mere 1 tick slippage on your results.
     
  9. brad1970

    brad1970

    It's the short part of the system that is killing me:

    Long 58.9% to 41.1% (w to l) with avg. p to l of 4.16 to 2.21
    Short 46.2% to 53.8% (w to l) with avg. p to l of 2.24 to 2.67

    finally max DD winners: 16.5 / losers 34.0.

    Going to tweak some more...
     
  10. brad i got a revolutionary idea for you, dump the short part :)
     
    #10     Oct 20, 2002