ES R1/S1 buy/short journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by doug456, Mar 4, 2004.

  1. doug456

    doug456

    I am starting this journal to see how well a strategy for trading ES will work. Here is a link to a post about the strategy http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=29214&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
    I will be paper trading this strategy, which consits of buying at S1 and shorting at R1. I know a lot of people will have different S/R numbers, but most should be within .50 of each other, which is also why I will be buying a tick or two below S1 and shorting a tick or two above R1, using a 2.25 stop loss and a profit target of at least 2.25 points. If I get a buy at S1 or a short at R1, I will use a trailing stop to help lock in profits, with hopes of making more than 2.25 points. Trailing stops will work like this. Once the initial profit target of 2.25 points is reached I will move a trailing stop to +1 point, if the trade moves to 3.00 points profit I will move up the stop to 2.25 points, if the trade goes to 4.00 points I will move the trailing stop to 3.00 points, if the trade goes to 5.00 points I will get out completely. I will paper trade this and if it is profitable and I am comfortable with this, I will trade it live. I will post my buy and short prices along w/the stops and profit targets in the morning of each trading day and try to update live as much as possible or at the end of the day.
     
  2. PetaDollar

    PetaDollar Moderator

    Have fun with this!

    Zone A means price above pivot, below R1.
    B is between R1 and R2.
    C is above R2.
    X is between the pivot and S1.
    S2 < Y < S1
    Z < S2

    This spreadsheet is for the NQ.
    It seems there is a hi % chance to hit the pivot if the opening range is in X and S1 is hit first. Not so for opening in A and hitting R1. I believe this is an echo of the current bull run, but I don't know for sure since my data is ESignal which doesn't go back real far.

    p.s. You are very wise to take the "make money on paper first" route. Wish I was when I started.
     
  3. PetaDollar

    PetaDollar Moderator

    Sorry I made a mistake in that last post.
    Since Sep 03, with the opening range in "X", price hit the
    pivot point (H+L+C)/3 before any another 79% of the time.
    The % actually decreases if it hits S1 first. Anyway you can and should compile your own statistics, as a guide.
     
  4. doug456

    doug456

    R1 & R2 were hit premarket, but that was because of the jobs report and i don't trade premarket. So trades are only taken after 9:30AM EST

    R1 short entry-1156.50-
    stop loss-1158.75-
    1st profit traget-1154.25-trailing stop-1155.50
    2nd target-1153.50-trailing stop-1154.25
    3rd target-1152.50-trailing stop-1153.50
    4th target-1151.50-all out

    S1 buy entery-1150.25
    stop loss-1148.00
    1 profit- 1152.50-trailing stop 1151.25
    2nd profit- 1153.25-trailing stop 1152.50
    3rd target-1154.25-strailing stop 1153.25
    4th target- 1155.25-all out
     
  5. doug456

    doug456

    Buy at S1 was filled at 9:42 at 1150.25.
    Also I am basing this on Buying on the ASK and Selling on the BID.
     
  6. doug456

    doug456

    9:55AM EST, target 1 reached trailing stop moved up to 1151.25
     
  7. doug456

    doug456

    10:00 AM EST target 2, 3, 4 reached, all out at 1155.25 +5.00
    I guess I can use this as a trail, the jobs report really affected this.
     
  8. doug456

    doug456

    10:22 AM ESt- R1 short entry filled at 1156.50- stop loss 1158.75
     
  9. doug456

    doug456

    10:23 AM- stopped out 1158.75 -2.25
     
  10. doug456

    doug456

    R1 short entry-1165.25-stop loss-1167.00
    1st profit target-1163.00-trailing stop-1164.25
    2nd target-1162.25-trailing stop-1163.00
    3rd target-1161.25-traling stop-1162.00
    4th target- 1160.25-all out

    S1 buy entry-1148.00-stop loss-1145.75
    1st profit target-1150.25-traling stop-1149.00
    2nd target-1151.00-trailing stop-1150.25
    3rd target-1152.00-trailing stop-1151.00
    4th target- all out
     
    #10     Mar 8, 2004