It should. And remember, every time you take a loss, you'll have that question to ask yourself. You may be able to put it off til 'tomorrow', Scarlett, but as soon as your first loss is registered, it'll be right there waiting for you. Don-
=================================== Sure it is,.25 is better than nothing,Saxton, ,Austin has a good point;wouldnt put it in a business plan,slippage could be a killer Profits ride
<b>saxon22</b>, most if not all of us here meant you no disrespect. I applaud you for spending the time in research to at least come this far with a trading plan. You began this thread by asking (in open fashion) where the holes might be in your research. Some of us with real trading experience have answered in hope of saving you lost time and money. There are a number of reasons why your data looks viable in research, but cannot possibly succeed in real time <i>over the course of time</i>. In other words, it is 100% impossible for any retail trader to pay normal trade costs and still mathematically succeed over any six month or one year period of time. It may be possible to enjoy some win streaks for awhile, but anything with such a negative profit to loss ratio cannot be done by retail traders. I would also venture to say that the same concept has been thought of by other traders before, probably thousands of times. If successful trader by such a simple approach were possible, those of us who came before you would be exploiting it right now. Sure would be fine with me... I can afford 100-lot ES positions at any time. If scalping high-odds profit were this easy, I'd happily be doing it already. <b>saxon22</b>, you are absolutely free to do as you wish. My one strong suggestion is trying this out on a one-lot position in real time for awhile. If it works as you surmise it could, the rest of us would love to hear alllllllllllllll about it! :>) Best Trading Wishes Austin
If you start trading couple of thouand contracts a day/month, then you should get a lease at the IOM. Your fees will go down exponentially. Take a look at this example http://www.velocityfutures.com/pdf/leaseorbuy.pdf (not a plug for velocity futures, not associated with them anyay) current prices http://www.cme.com/trading/mem/shareprices.html
Why would someone want to target a single tick move? The only answer a screen trader could give is a lower standard for entry -- is that your priority? To enter as often as you can? Putting it differently, which 1/4 points would you consider "safer" bets than others? If you felt there was a high probability for ES to move 3 points, would you consider that a better entry than a place where you only think a 1 point move would occur? Would you still just settle for your 1/4 then? Profitable floor traders end up making money with avg profit per contract in the sub-1 point range, but beyond lower commission costs, that is with a mindset of operating continuously as market-makers, often letting positions build up against them, as opposed to setting very tight stops. When the market goes one-way for 30 handles, you know these guys are puking up by the close. I am assuming you do not want to trade this mindset, and want to limit your risk with tight stops; in this case, you MUST find opportunities that will yield far more than a single tick. Just because smaller moves occur more frequently does not make them "easier" to trade. Do the homework, find those rarer times when the market will run a few points or more -- then and only then, if you want to limit your risk, just close too soon. Your catch-22 is basically the fact that, if you get to the point where you can identify "good" entry points to open a trade, it should yield you much more than just 1 tick.
trading the ES this way without learning from someone that does it profitably is so difficult, I would go so far as to say impossible for just about anybody. If you had a great mentor you'd have a shot. But what I'm guessing you'd find if you found such a person is that there are other markets where scalping like that is a better trade.
After examining the ES I have noticed that there is a lot of movement within 1/4 of a point. What I mean is that ES would jump with 1/2 point several times before moving on with the trend. SO, lets say ES is at 1333.50 uptick, I buy at 1333.50 100 lot, the ES wiggles going from 1333.50 to 1333.25 back to 133.50 and since I bought with the trend (uptick) it soon goes to 1334. Once it hits my target I get a fill and pocket 1250 less fees and taxes. I continue do that until ES hits resistance, then if it breaks through I wait for it to gather momentum and continue with the plan. If it does not penetrates and strat a downticks I short it until it hits support on its way back. Seems logical and doable from my angle. I can do it almost all day long as opposed to waiting for a set up to hit the market for a couple of points 3 maybe 4 times a day. Like I said before, I have not tried it yet with real $$$ so it is all one big ????? This is why in my original question I asked if it was doable.
Based on your experience with the real market and your trading size to be 100-200 contracts, I think its safe to assume that the initial margin which you will be putting for the trading is not earned from any prior trading I'll be most welcome to lighten your load in your account by taking the other side. Why just me, I think most of the *elite* traders who have been giving you real advice to rethink your strategy, will also be happy to take your money. I'm being very very honest here and you can flame me as much as you want