ES: patterns & rockets

Discussion in 'Journals' started by 1contract, Jun 19, 2003.

  1. ptt

    ptt

    without a system and without discipline
    it's just gambling
     
    #81     Jul 25, 2003
  2. ptt - agreed
     
    #82     Jul 29, 2003
  3. 9:45 Begin

    S1 992.50 994.25 -1.75
    (9:50)

    Sell short rocket - stopped out.

    10:15 Quit

    I'm unlikely to be trading much for the next 2 weeks - perhaps not at all. On holiday next week & lots of tasks to be completed before then.

    Summary:

    Day:
    - RT: 1 (0 winner, 1 losers, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -1.75

    Month:
    - RT: 27 (17 winner, 13 losers, 2 scratch)
    - PL: -5.75
     
    #83     Jul 29, 2003
  4. 9:50 Begin

    10:00 Wow!

    B1 991.25 993.75 +2.50
    (10:27) (10:34)

    Buy b.o. up from congestion. Sell @ HoD res (ignoring spike).
    [hindsight: lots of money left on table]

    B1 992.50 992.75 +0.25
    (10:33) (10:33)

    This was an order entry error. I intended to put a sell limit to exit previous trade & entred a buy instead. Fortunately able to exit immediately for no loss. For a few seconds here I was long 2 lots - perhaps I need to change my name.

    10:42 Now indicators are saying long rocket - but approaching round no. res (1000) so do nothing.

    11:29 Rocket coming to an end now. If I'd entered @10:42, I'd have had the opportunity to take a further 3-4 pts. Perhaps it's better to enter all of these automatically & then be prepared to exit quickly if nec'y.

    11:30 Quit




    15:35 Returned

    Looks like I just missed a great move.

    S1 988.75 988.00 +0.75
    (15:55)

    Sell break of little pennant. Cover quickly because I don't trust this so close to mkt close.
    [hindsight: good decision to exit]

    16:00 Quit



    Summary:

    Day:
    - RT: 3 (3 winner, 0 losers, 0 scratch)
    - PL: +3.50

    Month:
    - RT: 30 (20 winner, 13 losers, 2 scratch)
    - PL: -2.25

    Something wrong with stats here (RT<winners+losers+scartch) - I will check this later.
     
    #84     Aug 1, 2003
  5. Checking over my records for July, I make it:

    - RT: 35
    - PL: -1.75

    so some errors in above stats. :confused:
     
    #85     Aug 2, 2003
  6. 9:40 Begin

    Rocket signal on open - do nothing.

    9:45 Break of low - which I missed.
    9:47 Price very eratic with DOME looking thin & gappy - do nothing.

    10:00 There goes that gappy DOME again. Mkt a bit scarey today - looks like it wouldn't take much to launch one of those sudden spikes we've seen recently.

    B1 982.25 979.00 -3.25
    (11:18)

    Buy b.o. up of double bot. Late with the entry and late with the stop.


    S1 978.50 980.00 -1.50
    (11:38) (11:45)

    Sel b.o. of flag - stopped out.

    Postmorten trade 1:
    - entry bar red
    - bar after that extended the move against me (now past my stop)
    - now comes a little 2 bar retracement - low vol here suggests that it won't continue - I could have bailed here @908.00
    - bearing in mind time of day b.o should have been entered with extreme caution in first place

    Postmortem trade 2:
    - trade coincided with bullish div on TICK - should not have taken this trade

    12:15 Quit




    14:10 Return

    Beautiful flag developing on 10 minute chart.

    S1 979.50 978.75 +0.75
    (14:13) (15:55)

    Sell break of big flag. Departing from my stated plan at start of journal and. trading 10min chart rather than 3 - so will allow bigger stop for potential bigger profit. Held through 3.25 drawdown (14:48) while acc/dis supported the downward move. Trade moved into profit of 2.25 before reversing. Eventually took smaller profit when price moved up on stronger volume.
    [hindsight: should have taken +2 profit when it was there, as approaching end of day didn't leave scope for the kind of profit anticipated at start of trade. Gap down open on Monday?]

    16:00 Quit

    Summary:

    Day:
    - RT: 3 (1 winner, 2 losers, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -4.00

    Month:
    - RT: 3 (1 winner, 2 losers, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -4.00
     
    #86     Aug 2, 2003
  7. 14:10 Begin

    B1 987.25 983.50 -3.75
    (14:37) (15:06)

    Buy b.o. from congestion. Failed to pull trigger on my 2.25 pt stop - the words rabbit & headlight come to mind. This is starting to become a habit.
    [hindsight: should have exited for +/- a tick on lack of volume - chart shows lots of time for cheap exit. Failing that should have triggered stop as planned]

    S1 983.25 980.00 +3.25
    (15:06) (15:36)

    Sell b.o. (down) from cong. (reversal of previous trade). This turned into a rocket. Exited on fib resistance, even though stocs signal still holding.
    [hindsight: near perfect exit]

    15:45 Quit

    I wonder if a time stop might help with trades like #1? - e.g. if bo doesn't develop after 2 bars, exit.


    Summary:

    Day:
    - RT: 2 (1 win, 1 lose, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -0.50

    Month:
    - RT: 3 (2 winner, 3 losers, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -4.50
     
    #87     Aug 15, 2003
  8. 10:10 Begin

    B1 982.75 983.25 +0.50
    (10:20) (10:26)

    Buy reversal b.o. Turned into rocket, but snatched small profit on low volume bar.
    [hindsight: missed bigger profits - decision to exit was sound I think - but might have considered re-entering when vol. picked up a few mins later]

    B1 988.25 989.25 +1.00
    (11:20) (11:24)

    Buy b.o. of flag. Take profit when move stalled and acc/dis failed to make new high.
    [hindsight: good exit]

    B1 990.00 990.25 +0.25
    (12:04)

    Buy new hi. Snatched profit when price stalled.
    [hindsight: chicken exit - TICK, TRIN, acc/dis all favoured a continued rise - also rocket signalled - should have stayed]

    12:20 Quit

    Attached chart contains yesterday's trading too.



    Summary:

    Day:
    - RT: 3 (3 win, 0 lose, 0 scratch)
    - PL: +1.75

    Month:
    - RT: 3 (5 winner, 3 losers, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -2.75
     
    #88     Aug 15, 2003
  9. 9:45 Begin

    S1 986.00 988.25 -2.25
    (10:01)

    Sold break of cong. Stopped out on quick reversal.

    10:39 Left the screen for 5 mins & missed a good move - and a rocket signal. I will look to entering long rocket on a retracement.

    10:48 Rocket failed.

    Volume v. low today so far - summer, Friday, power problems.

    S1 990.00 989.75 +0.25
    (11:06) (11:24)

    Sell break of little H&S. Didn't materialise.

    11:45 Quit

    Summary:

    Day:
    - RT: 2 (1 win, 1 lose, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -2.00

    Month:
    - RT: 5 (6 winner, 4 losers, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -4.75
     
    #89     Aug 18, 2003
  10. 9:45 Begin

    S1 997.50 1000.25 -2.75
    (10:30)

    Sold break of flag. Stopped out.
    [hindsight: way too slow to exit here - at very worst 999.25 was completion of double bot]

    10:43 Now we have a long rocket signal - but HoD res just overhead.

    B1 1002.00 1002.75 +0.75
    (10:49) (10:58)

    Buy break of prev hi. Exit on volume spike and failure of acc/dis to make new hi (on 1min chart). HoD has been taken out.
    [hindsight: right to exit]

    11:08 Long rocket has now failed, as has HoD b.o. - this is beginning to look like a possible short entry.

    11:30 Quit


    Postmortem:

    2.75 is way too big a stop to risk on a trade like #1 this - where profit potential was only 2-3.

    Some good moves during the rest of the day: break H&S @12.24; nice break lower @14:39 that I might have taken 1-2 pts form.

    The trend in the last hr didn't quite make rocked signal (stoc but not MACD) on the 3min chart - but did on the 5 minute.

    Daily volume picking up but still v.low.

    Monthly PL starting to look ugly. I don't think I'm being helped by the low volume, which works against the kinds of b.o. trades that I find myself playing. I'm going to cut back on my trading for the rest of the month, or until volume returns.

    When I do trade, I am going to take some failed b.o. trades - looking for low volume following b.o.


    Summary:

    Day:
    - RT: 2 (1 win, 1 lose, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -2.00

    Month:
    - RT: 12 (1 winner, 5 losers, 0 scratch)
    - PL: -6.75
     
    #90     Aug 20, 2003