Kicking, "patterns ... becoming traps" - this certainly resonates with me. It's difficult to imagine that they simply stop happening though. What's more likely is that the mkt goes through cycles - some patterns work for a while then stop - then start again.
Trades for 20/06/03 9:45 Begin B1 998.75 998.00 -0.75 (10:36) (10:39) Entered rocket as per signal. Exited as per signal. B1 999.50 998.25 -1.25 (10:42) (10:51) Re-entered rocket as per signal. Exited a little late - not paying enough attention to stocs. B1 1000.25 99.25 -1.00 (11:01) (11:06) Entered on breakout. Exited on failure to follow through. Real resistance line not clear (horizontal? Sloping?) Note that T&S showed very little buying above 1000.25 - so this should have got me out me sooner. B1 1001.00 00.00 -1.00 (11:11) (11:17) Entered breakout & rocket. Exited on failure to follow through. Low volume BO bar should have gotten me out much sooner though. In retrospect I shouldn't have taken either of those breakouts because: i) congestion pattern not tight enough to suggest clean break; ii) volume had not sufficiently dried up to suggest BO imminent. What's worse, I wasn't proactive enough about getting out. 11:30 Dinner time (well it is where I live!) 12:45 Return to screen S1 997.00 96.50 +0.50 (13:05) (13:18) Entered on rocket as per signal. Exited as per signal. S1 995.50 94.00 +1.50 (13:21) (13:27) Entered on rocket as per signal. Exited before signal due to S/R. In retrospect this was the right thing to do - even though I might have squeezed another point before jumping. 13:40 Take children to park 15:00 Return to screen: Interesting BIG flaggy formation on chart. Watch for break of support. S1 993.00 92.75 +0.25 (15:24) (15:26) Entered break down of support but baled when price seemed to stall and T&S looked unpromising. S1 91.75 92.00 -0.25 (15:27) (15:30) Entered when break out appeared to continue & baled when it stalled again. In retrospect this was chasing the mkt a bit - but at least I got out cheaply - is this a "wash trade"? Not a great day. Some mistakes, as noted above, and rather more trades than I would have liked. Some/all of the AM trades could have been avoided on the basis that price was not clear of congestion. At least the losses are small enough to be well within the range that can be turned around by catching a few good rockets. Summary: Day: - RT: 8 (3 winners, 5 losers) - Net: -1.75 Week: -RT: 12 - Net: -3.00
nitro, I am surprised that you responded to this thread, but offered nothing. with your experience you could help this guy out a little, like you have helped so many others.
Here's what I see so far... First of all...I notice you talk in-depth about a few indicators... Yet...I see on your 3 minute charts what looks like Bollinger Bands. Further, I have not read any dialogue from you about Bollinger Bands. My first question is this...why do you have Bollinger Bands on your charts if your not using them? Secondly, if your going to trade BreakOuts...you need to understand their weakness. Many traders don't understand that the market moves in cycles and so do chart patterns. It's absolutely critical you find the commonalities in your patterns or setups that cause them to fail. Knowing your weakness...you'll gain an edge. For example...when BreakOuts aren't working well...you'll start hearing conversation by traders saying they are fading BreakOuts. With that said...what's a weakness of BreakOuts? Divergence Simply...one of BreakOuts weakness or a good method to avoid false BreakOuts... is to avoid the ones in divergence patterns. I'm not going to sit here and tell you what type of divergence to look for... there are dozens and dozens of divergence setups out there online and in books. There's also a few threads here at ET via discussions on divergence strategies. I will tell you this...your already using a few indicators your comfortable with. Start there and learn how to apply them in divergence patterns. Thus, the next time you see a BreakOut and you also see that BreakOut is in divergence with one of those indicators your already using... you have 3 choices: 1. No trade 2. Reduce your risk via reducing your size. 3. Wait for the BreakOut to fail and fade it via a divergence setup. Note: Since your only trading 1 contract...choice #1 or #3 is obvious. Another thing about BreakOuts...whatever chart interval your using...make sure you get confirmation via letting that interval complete itself. For example...lets say your using a 5min chart interval and you see a breakout at the 4min mark... you still have 1min remaining. Therefore, if you enter a Long position at the 4min mark via a 5min chart interval... the market has an entire 1min to pullback, sucker you in...producing a long upper candlestick shadow that penetrated above some breakout line... with no true breakout by the time the 5min interval completes itself. Another trading tip via the fact you have already on your chart what looks like Bollinger Bands... be extremely careful about multiple long upper candlestick shadows at the Upper BBand or some key resistance area... especially if your a BreakOut trader or going to be using BreakOut strategies as a main part of your trade methodology. Here's the RECAP of the above about BreakOuts... understand the weakness of your strategy...this is an edge. Therefore, via the BreakOuts...be extemely careful when taking such positions in divergence or among long upper candlestick shadows at the upper bollinger band or key resistance area. Geeesh...I think I just gave you a reason to rationalize why you should keep using bollinger bands Note: The above applies also to BreakDowns. Next point...about using Time & Sales for the Eminis... Do not assume you can decipher small lots or large lots as an indicator if your with the crowd or against it... to determine if you should enter a position or not. Most successful traders that use T&S use it only as an exit tool...to determin if there's momentum still remaining after their position reached its profit-target... therefore deciding if they should milk it a little longer via the momentum pace in the numbers moving across their T&S screen. Thus, a 3 lot trade causing a breakout is not different from a 150 lot trade causing a breakout because I often see breakouts via a lot of 100 lot trades on upticks to only see the breakout fail and start a new trend in the opposite direction only seconds later. Simply...use it as a pace. Yet, with all the recent QCharts queing issues (data server problems)...I would ignore the visual pace in your T&S screen. Someone once said... "There are dumb retail traders trading large size...its impossible to tell if that 100 lot size is a smart trader or a dumb trader". Something else I noticed...you mentioned your going to make an effort to only use the 3min chart. I see you've already posted two 3min charts. My next question is this...are you only posting 3min charts to convince us that's what your using... when in reality in your QCharts workspace you have the 1min and 3min charts sitting side-by-side on your monitor along with other stuff? If so...you'll never accomplish your goal of only using the 3min chart because that 1min chart will be constantly sending you subconscious and/or subliminal messages. This is one of those psychological aspects of trading that's rarely discussed. Traders often have things on their charts that on the surface level they never mention... on the subsurface level (subconscious) there's this big discussion going on about those things they don't mention that are sitting on their charts. This can cause serious trading problems...disaster in your trading account... if your getting mixed signals that you aren't even aware about. Acknowledge your subconscious. Discuss what's actually on your charts and monitor...don't waste time discussing things not on your charts. This is another trading edge. I've been around the block a few times to see these posted maximized charts... knowing that traders have several other charts on their monitors at the time of each and every trade... other things giving input. Therefore, post one image of your entire Qcharts workspace so that we can see what other things your subconscious is discussing and giving you subliminal messages. 1contract...I wish you the best and I truly believe traders that concentrate more on those subconscious or subliminal inputs in their trading... they'll have a better chance at succeeding and making a living at trading. P.S. Your goal is to seek help and understanding...your on the right track via starting your journal and hopefully you have more steps forward than backwards... a journey we all are taking. Therefore...you are not alone. NihabaAshi
Thanks NihabaAshi for the comments, which I will study in detail. In quick response to some of your points: I also have small charts of TICK, TRIN, TIKI, EPREM & (since yesterday) T&S in my workspace. I used to pay a lot of attention to TICK & TRIN but use them more as background now (security blanket). I am sometimes aware of divergences on TICK and on Acc/Dis - and would use these to infer that a trend is coming to an end. All charts are 3 minute - but I can easily switch them (in synch) to any other timeframe. I haven't been doing this a lot - nor have I been anticipating a signal before the 3min bar closes. I really appreciate the interest that has been shown in this journal by those have posted, and I hope to learn. Thanks guys.
I have seen 1car trade. He needs nothing except to continue his education - he does not seem to be lacking in balls and he trades a method. He might even be at the point where he can turn the corner. IMHO, a journal is not the place to ask for help. It is a place to expose yourself and try to log what you do for later reflection. Giving help here will only confuse him, in the wrong way. nitro
Trades for 24/06/03 Begin 13:30 Looks like I missed the action this AM. A new version of Jtrader today - excellent - which makes it much easier to enter stop orders. Tempted to go short around 14:40 when price moved below congestion - but sitting on hands. B1 980.25 80.00 -0.25 (15:43) (15:51) Entered rocket as per signal. Exited without stocs signal, because getting near close. Summary: Day: - RT: 1 (0 winners, 1 losers) - Net: -0.25 Week: - RT: 1 (0 winners, 1 losers) - Net: -0.25
Trades for 24/06/03 (previious post should be 23rd - not 24th) Looking strong at open. Rocket signal from stocs (9:42) but not from MACD. If I took today as continuation of last night then I would enter rocket as MACD was strong near close. S1 980.00 81.75 -1.75 (10:23) (10:31) Entered rocket as per signal. Failed to take cheap exit, and forced out on a price stop. S1 978.50 78.25 +0.25 (10:40) (10:49) Re-entered rocket. Exited when price bouncing off resistance. 11:15 Leave screen 11:50 Return to screen Great tailing off of volume through this congestion so looking for a BO B1 981.00 80.00 -1.00 (12:04) Entered BO of big triangle congestion, but false. OK I'm not going to be suckered by these BOs any more - will wait for a trend. [hindsight: 3 successively lower highs on MACD hist preceded this failure -> divergence -> should have stayed out] 12:53 BO reappeared, with a little uptrend emerging - standing aside. - points against the trend: lower peaks on the MACD, lack of increasing volume - points for the trend: TICK remains high, TRIN trending lower (but still > 1.2), acc/dis increasing (just about) 13:10 Trend line broken & TICK broken lower. Tempted to go short - but I'm only trading BOs and rockets - so that would be outside my plan [hindsight: good decision] 13:30 Leaving for domestic duties 14:00 Back - didn't miss any signals. This little trend still grinding higher. TICK & TRIN still supporting it & volume increasing. Approaching resistance @ 86.75 - which would mark completion of double bot on 10min chart. 14:45 Short rocket signal on 5min chart - but 3min MACD hist refuses to close below -0.4. Do nothing. 14:55 5min rocket just failed. Stoc close above -0.4 S1 982.50 82.50 +0.00 Entered short rocket as per signal. Exited without signal because of resistance & approaching end of day. Note: unable to export QCharts workspace - price window only Summary: Day: - RT: 4 (1 winners, 2 losers, 1 scratch) - Net: -2.50 Week: - RT: 1 (1 winners, 3 losers, 1 scratch) - Net: -2.75
Trades for 25/06/03 9:30 Begin 9:54 Long rocket signal but sitting @ resistance, so pass for now. B1 987.75 86.00 -1.75 (10:00) Enter on BO of yesterday's high - encouraged by higher acc/dic highs with each price peak (3 recent peaks - today/yesterday). My entry stop was @ 87.00 so this was a very bad fill. Are simulated stops always this bad? B1 988.25 88.50 +0.25 (10:11) (10:59) Entered on rocket signal & BO of earlier high. Held position through rocket exit signal (MAE: 86.50) on the basis of acc/dis & then chickened out when I saw a profit. Not exactly disciplined. 11:10 Just looked at 10min chart. Looks like the big double bot confirmed - so looking for a reason to get long again. 11:15 We have an up trend. - points for the trend: higher high on acc/dis, strong TICK, low TRIN - points against the trend: lower high on MACD hist Wait for (if) MACD hist to come back, up for a rocket entry 11:30 trend line broken. 11:45 acc/dis flat & volume dropping off 12:00 Foooood 15:10 Returned to screen - looks like I missed the action. S1 878.00 76.50 +1.50 (15:15) (15:18) Entered on rocked signal. Exited before signal because of interruptions - this has cost me a few points. Summary: Day: - RT: 3 (2 winners, 1 losers, 0 scratch) - Net: +0.00 Week: - RT: 8 (3 winners, 4 losers, 1 scratch) - Net: -2.75