This is nearer to our forcast "Above is the 60 min. chart of the SPY. The first of June the SPY broke above the 93 level (and noted at the time of the 6/1 breakout that it was a false break because volume did not confirm) but failed to hold that high and fell below 93 and created a bearish âUpthrustâ. The SPY could be forming a bearish Head and Shoulders top and the Right Shoulder is being developed now. A lot of the time there is symmetry in time in that if the left shoulder took three weeks the Right shoulder should also. The Left shoulder did take three weeks and therefore the right shoulder may over between 89 to 93 for another week or so. A Neckline break near 89 with a Sign of Strength would confirm this pattern and give a downside target to 82 and a 50% retracement of the rally from the March low would give a target to the 81 level. Therefore we will be watching that region for a bullish setup. We are short the SPX at 883.92. Above is an intermediate term look at the SPX and this indicators on this chart have turned down. Bottom window is the RSI and it has had a bearish crossover of it 17 day EMA. Second window from the bottom is the NYSE Summation index and it is on a sell signal. Third window from bottom is the NYSE Bullish percent index and it had a bearish crossover. Fourth window up is the MACD and it have a bearish divergence at the SPX high and has since rolled over to the downside. Top window the Cumulative Advance/Decline line and it has a trend line break and gave a sell signal. Because of the indicator mentioned above this current decline could run into July or August."
"The 3.7% rebound in the S&P off Tuesday's trough (intraday low to high) is a positive but from a short term perspective the index needs to work back through 923 and the 928/930 area on a sustained basis to improve the weaker pattern that has developed off the June high and the formation that has potentially developed over the last two months (head-and-shoulders)."
Hold FAZ long and QQQQ, USO, SPY shorts 06-23-09 01:14 PM sell short USO market (37.25) 06-24-09 09:54 AM sell short SPY @ market (90.39) 1/2 position closed, 1/2 open 06-25-09 10:18 AM sell spy market (90.87) 06-26-09 03:47 PM buy FAZ at market (4.69) 06-26-09 04:03 PM sell QQQQ market (36.31)