Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Jahajee, Mar 26, 2009.
Thread intended to provide live calls for FUTURES trading especially the e-minis
Sell short ESM9 on any failure of 820/825; fine tune trade with reversal on 5-m momentum chart or your favorite indicator, or use Price Action to determine failure of 820/825 zone
Stop loss at 829/832 - again, fine tune with indicator or PA action
Consider reversing to long or opening new long at 831/833
This trade valid if as long as market trades in 810 to 820 zone
Looking to sell short ESM9 if it fails to break out above 825
Possible entry around 821 to 823
Also look to short NQM9 between 1266 and 1270; wait for the momentum on 5m to turn down
Short trades invalidated.
Looking for long setup to kick in
ES short triggered at between 827 and 825.75
closed half @ 822
set stop exit on rest at breakeven
lower stop exit to 823.5
"821 to 823" is not making live calls. This is what some vendors do. It allows manipulation. If trade goes well, they will say 'our target was approached, so we got in. WHAT - you didn't?" If trade goes badly, they will say they did not get in for reason X Y or Z. In addition, they get in at the best possible price and out at the best possible price. So a long gets in at 821, and out at 823 making 2 points, even if the price is at the same point they started. And they could in ACTUALITY gotten long at 823 and out at 821, and lost 2 points.
Also, does the market have to trade THROUGH or just TOUCH a price? If it traded through/touched price 2-3 times, which entry (or exit) are they allowed to take? Did they take the second touch, because the first one would have lost 15 points?
Without complete and total precision, posting unaudited "real live trades" leaves a lot of interpretation. Giving a band of prices for entry/exit is the first thing you need to get rid of.
Further "Short trades invalidated" is not nearly descriptive enough. Without auditing the trade, the entry & exit criteria must be brutally clear, and absolutely no interpretation allowed. And the reason "invalidated" must be listed with exactly why, per the entry/exit criteria. The other traders are not seeing your screen. Saying you decided not to get in is not sufficient.
Every trade requires clear, unchangeable exit criteria. Three things can happen:
1) Market traded through our profit objective (PO), so we are out.
2) Market traded through our stop loss (SL), so we are out.
3) Since neither PO or SL touched, we are out at 7:15pm today, as originally described.
Again, doing this "post your trades" is subject to all sorts of manipulation and hemming and hawing. With audited trades (collective2, futures truth, striker, attain, etc.), statistics is also visible. With your way, it is not. "YAY, I made 2 points!!!" Yes, but did you endure a 23 point drawdown en route? Do you claim 90% winning percentage, when you average $100 on winning trades and lose $900 on losing trades?
We are testing a system that will be refined in realtime.
Thanks for your comments. We are not selling you anything so
don't expect any telemarketing calls from us.
The stop is based in realtime ATR and moves up or down.
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