Funny that I actually guessed correctly that it would beat expectations. Although I do know it was luck. I did something like you said one time betting against the Norweigian Krone (NOK). It was after an attack by Yemen on Saudi oil facilities... The price of NOK went up because it's correlated to price of oil. I bet that it was an overreaction. I would have made a very hefty return if it were real money.
Congratulations, you know have a trading edge that if applied methodically and consistently will make you money. What are you waiting for? This post might come across as sarcasm but I can assure you that it isn't. You've sussed out an edge and understand why it works and how to play it. Get in there!
1. Because I have a business with practically 100% guaranteed profits that I still have room to expand. 2. Because these types of events (overreacting to news) don't happen regularly enough to do every day. And I'm definitely not 100% sure that I wouldn't lose lots of money if I tried.