I missed the last few hours of trading today as i had some technical issues, but im up and running again, and looking at the charts, i actually would have had 2 more very good trades.....Not sure if this pleases me or annoys me, lol. Probably pleases me as it gives me confidence. Lets see what tomorrow brings.
I know and will make this what I do for a living. I started out a few years ago dabbling in stocks but as of recent have became hooked on the futures. For the past month I've been day trading and or scalping the ES mini, using a Mirus Zenfire demo account with Ninja. I've looked at the price in seconds, minutes, hours and days; seeing patterns occur over and over again. I've read numerous texts, I follow entries suggested by web site a or site b. I've watched hundreds of youtube videos. I've can correctly place SR lines, I can correctly place trends lines from previous days. I know BB squeezes, double tops, double bottoms and break outs. I know what a coil is as well as a trading in a channel. I like engulfing candles and dojis. I keep a journal and review it before I go to bed, waking up ready to see how I will fare today - only to be repeatedly and viscously stomped on by the market, by you, all of you out there trading with me. I find it uncanny how mathematically an EMA10 cross of an EMA60 must occur before a great move in either direction. But when trying to use this knowledge in real time I end up at some point unknowing - wondering if the confirmed cross go big or will price simply flip back on me. My style is to get in with established profit targets and stop losses, but take what the market offers. If I try to keep tight stops it leads to whipsaws and if I use large stops I shudder at the thought of big draw downs. Many times I "zoom out" and review the larger time frame chart saying to myself if I had only entered there because of and exited here because of, I would have made x points. Trust me when I say hindsight is not very profitable. I understand money management - risking only some percentage of the account say 2.5% to establish my risk:reward ratio. I understand scaling out of a trade so its "free". I understand the concept to trade 1 contract and earn the capital to trade 2 and so on. I understand the concept of 3:1 for profit_target:stop_loss ratios. I've got numerous spreadsheet showing if I can consistently win just 2 tics - I emphasize consistently - I have it made. Even winning just 73.478% of the time. I eat, sleep, drink, and dream this stuff. My wife thinks I'm nuts. And day after day the market wins...you win...and no I will not give up so don't even go there. What are some basic things to focus on? What's the best time frame to use? What are the best basic entry moves to use? Trust me I already know how to get out - I've got a lot of practice at it - managing stops is critial. I want to be in and out of the market in 2 hours. I know this can be done because the charts say so. Oh yea, I have a hard time believing those emailers telling me for only $9.99 a minute I can receive their at home training kit, join the chat room, and in little over a few weeks I'll be making money. Help Mr. Wizard, teach me how to see what will happen on the right hand side of the screen.
Good stuff. There are many way to win at this, and it has to fit your own style. I would encourage you to consider different money management styles. I risk 5% to 10% of my total balance on a trade, though I win 13%-20%. Each time I double my balance, I cash out. Not saying that this is right for everyone, but it does make things very simplistic.
For any 'real' ES traders who happen to be viewing my journal: would you say the current ES trading evironment is harder or easier than in general? Are my results so far very typical of a 'learner'? I want an idea of whether im doing good, bad, very bad etc. Its not enough for me to just say 'im up 2 out of the 3 weeks so far so im doing OK' as maybe, for example, this is a very easy market and ill be getting killed in a months time for example, or maybe this is a very strange market at the moment, or maybe its a hard market that suit a certain strategy at the moment. I obviously dont have much to compare too....
tulanch ... I am a novice as you are and I am trading a single NQ contract for intraday swings. Other more experienced traders will express opinions and you should listen to them before another novice but your phrase "winning just 73.478% of the time" -- may well point to a basic conceptual problem. If you believe the word "just" is appropriate in that sentence then I think your thinking is way off. "Just" implies that 73.478% is not hard to do -- consistently. You may come from a profession where it is easy to be right three quarters of the time and even the "new guy", if he's talented, has no trouble batting 730 but that is not reality in this trade. You need to find a trade that gives you a net win (with all direct costs counted but without factoring in overhead -- data, exchange fees etc.) if you succeed two thirds or maybe 60% of the time. The benchmark you have set up is simply too hard to achieve. And if you feel the need to carry your win/loss percentage three digits past the decimal it may well indicate a tunnel vision approach. And, lastly, if it is an addiction and not a businesslike attempt go to rehab.
OK. Done for the day. Dont wanna overtrade - 5 trades made today which is better than recent days for me. Total points today = +4.75 we'll call it +$175 (usual $5 per trade and add in another small random charge) so far this week: mon - +$180 Tue - +$150 Wed - $+175 3 winning ones in a row - expecting to give some back tomorrow or friday but hopefully end positive on the week.
hmmm.....winning day again (just!) so shold be happy with that, but i managed my winning trades poorly. Notably a long at about the bottom of the market where i took, i think, 1.5 points from a move that ended up being like 20 points!! Dont know why i didn;t have faith in the crazy bulls! i made 2.25 points overall. Im not sure if my brain is fried from staring at the screen but i cant get my pnl ninjatrader to make sense to me! Even tho the commissions are there i dont think they ever actually affect my overal pnl which is why i usually do it manually. If i've made 2.25 points shouldn't the total net be more like +$110 (trading 1 contract)..???....
so 2.25 points. 8 trades. We'll say +$60? gives so far this week: mon - +$180 Tue - +$150 Wed - $+175 Thur - $+60