Yes, it's been a rough day pokito! No bounce I can sink my teeth in, that's for sure. I would not be surprised if I go down 10-20% before it's said and done. I mean it's not out of the question. If we continue down to 1215, I'll be down close to 16k which would be 12.6% of account size. I need to get a spanking from time to time, lol. This week is shaping up to be it.
You are one determined bull! I am not asking this in a sarcastic or demeaning sense. I am asking in objective sense - I just want to know. Is their a reason to stick to being a bull with the current price action, other than the desire to prove you are right or expecting a spanking?
I think a couple days off or the week off would be good so you don't blow up your account Not trying to be mean. Sometimes a break helps after 6 straight days of gripping the sides of your chair as it flows against you. It is still in a nice down trend. On monday I thought that wednesday would be a turn around day but now its not looking as good.
I understand that you're not trying to be sarcastic. I'm more bullish now than I was early in the week, lol. I stated my bias on Sunday night that I've turned bearish on the market. I admitted of making several mistake, including not reversing. I wasn't expecting the downtrend to be that viscous, and move that much in just 2 days! But it did. Fortunately, I sized in slowly. No I'm not trying to prove something, just attempting to catch a bounce that has yet to materialize. Then again, I haven't put on a full position in a long while. Tomorrow could be the day were I have on 25 positions. Yikes!!! 1 tick = $312.5 Crazy! I tell you though, we are fortunate to be experiencing great volatility without much increase in the VIX. I also forgot to mention that Sunday night closing of my long position from last Friday with a + 17.75, has helped cushion the draw down considerably, so the draw down is not as bad as it seems. However, I do treat every new structured position( initial + adds) as a new one. Thus, my draw down on this has been on the moderate side, but not severe...yet.
extreme trend days are often an exhaustion and are followed by large reversals. ovals are extreme uvol or dvols followed by the opposite extreme
Even if this averaging in were real, then setting yourself up for a possible 12.6% loss is to be considered wildly overextended and reckless. --Suggest reviewing proper risk management techniques.
Well, you have to put everything in the proper context B1S2. Yes, at 12.6% loss, it would be a big one from a swing trading perspective since that trade was placed based on just one idea. However, with the market moving 20+ points a day these days, I don't see it that detrimental, specially when you can get back to BE in a day or less. You are also looking at the glass full of risk/reward, which is ok to a point. But I'm looking at the glass full of volatility. I ask myself everyday how can I milk it the best I can. It works most of the time, but sometimes, it falls flat on its face. I can only find out the outcome of this trade after the fact. I can't speculate what the final results would be till the end of the week.
I agree we are in a volatile market with the es which is what we wait for. i am not sure whatnthe vix will do. I think we will breach the neckline for a reversal, but I would not venture a guess when. could be tomorrow could be a few weeks. As Vol pointed there are a humungous open interest in puts at current price levels which could precipitate a short squeeze. i think LC thinks we will will touch 1300 again, I think he's looking at a gap fill ar some fib retracements (not sure). I think we are looking at a reversal. But hey what the hell it hasn't been confirmed yet ( I think it will be in the next week or sooner). point being you may be right. But you may not be. I may be right, but I may not be.
one of many rules for risk management not etched in stone but a conventional one risk more than 2.0 perent on any one trade and no greater than a 6.0 percent loss on your account for any one month. the rule: if you hit 6.0 percent loss stop for the month.