Andrew Lo, perhaps? I was recommended a few papers from him way back, but have not gotten to read them yet =) I remember passing on a link to one of my academic friends who needed "proof" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Lo
1330 bot again ... by the bots .... i guess the memo said, "no breakdown out of friday's value area."
According to what was discussed yesterday, a buy stop @ 31, one tick above these two last 5-minute bars, would let momentum carry you into a trade. It`s not always the best thing to do in the ES though, since it usually retraces.
I hope you meant that one of my mistakes was that my chart was not enough annotated by far? The original chart I saved from that day were filled with notes, I barely wrote anything in the chart that I posted. The chart I posted was saved for other references and not intended for you specifically. It merely illustrated one simple concept of getting stopped into a trade. Which of the parts was unrandom and which were random? I understand your questions, but everything is about context. The trade I "took" was a momentum breakout with the gap fill as a target. I reasoned that my risk on such an entry would be low since I did not expect price to retrace much beyond my entry if we were to get the gap fill by the end of the day. Price did retrace to my entry level, but not even one tick in the red. The breakout of the swing high is a little more tricky and I would expect price to retrace a little more there. Most of the times in the ES, it is best to enter on a breakout pullback as was the case there. Fake breakouts are common and the ES will usually give you a second chance if it is a real breakout. I really don`t understand nor care about what you are saying when you refer to the stuff on my chart as crap. Just because you don`t understand it, does not mean it`s not valuable to me. 50% gap fills are excellent targets when we have huge gaps. Globex high and lows are also important references.