ES Journal Archive (2011)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Jan 3, 2011.

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  1. One of the obvious mistakes in your trading is , you are annotating everything.took a quick look at your annotations, and it was just close to random price action from a gapdown.

    The unrandom parts was left un-annotated, believe it or not :)


    Example #1: breakout following breakout with tests of stops,
    How are you going to risk manage with all these tests of stops?

    a. The test of stops can happen or it can not happen, where will you risk manage?

    b. If you put your stop at the low of the LOWS, you can probably get stopped out mainly because of lack of information of larger trend.

    c. If you put your stop at breakout, you would be stopped out, because it dips farther then breakout.,

    d. Trading breakouts in general is risky business because of the dumb money focusing on it. (it wasn't a breakout either)

    e. What you traded wasn't a breakout, it was a gapfill) because of lower lows. So your theory of breakouts wouldn't even apply.


    Theres way too many "if this happens then it could be this , but it could also be this " in your charts, its equivalent to GAMBLING.
     
    #7011     Jul 4, 2011
  2. figure out whats important, breakouts ain't it. the triple W low ain't important, the 50% gap ain't important. Most of the crap on your chart ain't important. the technical can be subjective, but from your annotations

    you are definately not focusing on whats important cause there couldn't be 10 things thats important.
    you are focusing on what stands out. Big difference.


    In a war, snipers don't take out random targets, they focus on who's important, and disregard the rest of the 25,000 plebians. Some dood can be in a clown suit, while he may stand out, a sniper must quickly refocus.
     
    #7012     Jul 4, 2011
  3. marceck

    marceck

    Or:
     
    #7013     Jul 4, 2011
  4. since its onesided on ur work, i'll post my work.
    this is important.

    [​IMG]
     
    #7014     Jul 4, 2011
  5. marceck

    marceck

    I'm not suggesting the H&S with NQ will play out, just that it's an option.
     
    #7015     Jul 4, 2011
  6. That's my confusion with TA.

    There's usually a bearish and bullish possibility at nearly all times.
     
    #7016     Jul 4, 2011
  7. Coolweb,

    Maybe it's me, others can deny or confirm but from over here it looks like you are talking a lot of crap and pumping a lot of chest without saying anything at all.

    NAD
     
    #7017     Jul 4, 2011
  8. Good, but that's only half the battle.

    Spot the bull formation

    Spot the bear formation

    Sit tight, be patient.

    When one side fails, STRIKE!

    get it ?

    NAD
     
    #7018     Jul 4, 2011
  9. NDX if it is going to do a H&S we are talking about 25 to 30 pts higher from here.

    NDX is the mkt leader and the composite is not.

    That extra 25 pts translate to 10 to 15 pts in ES thus breaking the H&S you are talking about.

    p.s. I do believe a pullback is in order but I am not in the H&S camp on daily any more since 1300 was broken. I am more a DT kind of guy now. =)
     
    #7019     Jul 4, 2011
  10. Now we are talking, I got serious resistance above our current yearly highs. We may or may not breach it but I'm going to assume
    failed breakout shall we breach it.

    Very dangerous area above 1380s for bulls, potential bend of 20-40 points, perhaps none but that's my call.

    NAD
     
    #7020     Jul 4, 2011
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