This was the absolute hardest issue for me to overcome. This, along with getting out of a bad trade that I know is wrong BEFORE it hits my stop. So often I would see the market showing the opposite direction, and I would have a great chance for a -2, -1, or a b/e. I would sit there and hope for some sort of hail mary that never came, and then get punched for the full stop.
Thanks ammo for the feedback. Yes trying to improve!! And thanks everyone for response to the 4 o clock puzzle.
Disconnect between ES and SPX, SPY, other indices, etc, as the stock market closes. Easier to push around ES then. Just a wild guess.
gmst, maybe many things can be attributed to this, news or whatever. However, a level does not usually get hit that many times without at least a stop run. If the level continues to hold, it becomes too low risk for people not to enter it; low risk equals low probability, thus the stops usually must be run. In other words, if levels held after giving so many people an opportunity to short it, then it would be too easy, and the market does not allow or reward easy when it comes to picking a price to buy or sell. The markets largely exist to screw as many people as possible, and it won't make it as easy as seeing a level hold over and over and let more people in without screwing them first.
I show the ES hitting the upper downward sloping trendline in AH. I've seen them nudge it well over a resistance area in AH which nearly blows any stops in place or worse, prevents a decent entry. With the time of year (Christmas week), I am not sure of the obvious trade I see. The short with a ten point stop looking for 30 by noon tomorrow. DT on the ES is not far (65) and then 84 is only a couple day's drift for a solid hit of res. No worries....PBR on tap with an order of nachos.
Your guess will get my vote for the best answer. Vote for 2nd best answer goes to ammo for uvol/dvol blow-out on trend days. Just that it should have happened before 4, maybe around 3:55 or so. But the level got broken immediately after cash stopped trading, and thats why I think you have nailed it. Btw, good to see you post here after a long time. I thought you deserted ES journal thread, after you became very profitable. j/k
Thanks Josh for your insight. Very well put - I must say. However, the key thing that your theory doesn't answer is why 4 o clock break ? I mean I was personally long from 2 pm and closed it finally in exasperation at 3:51 pm, since we just couldn't break 49.5. And it broke exactly at 4pm. Otherwise the points you raise are excellent, thanks for that.
For what it's worth, I found I always did best when I wondered about the "why" later, after I was in the green! If you lock down a consistently profitable setup, just trade the setup and you'll stop worrying about the why