Talk shit? Are you drunk? If that is how you perceive my post, I feel sorry for you. My original posts on the subject of adding to losers was not aimed at any specific person and certainly not you, but when you surfaced claiming you proved otherwise with your trading journal, how could I not speak my mind? I tried to write it as politely as I could and doing my best not to hurt any delicate susceptibilities, but your reply speaks volumes seeing how your feelings were hurt from my post. You enjoy the position of being a guru and getting your ego stroked, but do not like it if anyone dares to question you. Now, I don`t count your trades and I don`t care, but if you truly netted 400 points that is fantastic. Congratulations! I have never doubted that you pull home some decent coin and your market read is usually top notch from what I can tell. That said, you leave out the important part of position sizing which is the heart of the matter in this discussion and what is conclusive to our p/l. A trader can win 60 ES points on 1 contract and give it all back losing 20 points on 3 contracts the next day. That pretty much sums it up. I have no intention of discussing this further as everything have been said on my part and it is obvious that there is no interest in discussing this in an intelligent manner. The last time I checked this was a forum where we discuss trading for the purpose of learning and not a fanclub where we stroke each other`s egos and indulge in fantasies, but I may have been wrong. Good trading, happy christmas and happy new year to you and everyone else!
Short 1236.50. Market is in a tight consolidation phase due to resistance at 1237 area. I think if this breaks down, it will break down hard and fast. The Euro crap is still imminent and trading volume was extremely light on the rally. Looking for a breakdown to the 1217 1218 zone for target with a tight stop just in case this breaks up. If this break upward, I will be stalking a short in the low 1240's (1242, 1243, wherever this slows down in that area). How is that for a trading Plan? Please criticize or educate me if you think this trading plan lacks any depth and please show me an example or path to a good one. Thanks All!!!
I am very interested in discussing this topic with you intelligently, as you raise some very interesting points regarding averaging, whether it's up or down, but not tonight. I Hope will address it tomorrow. Good bye.
No "problem" with your plan, sounds reasonable if you are going to short, but I would consider a different look at the volume. S&P cash traded highest volume in December today, except for last Friday's opex high-as-expected volume, and this is 3 trading days before the holiday. So, I would argue that the volume was not "extremely light." You're probably looking at ES volume which is fine, but volume would be expected to be lighter this week anyway, so it's not a normal analysis. http://screencast.com/t/zHIqagp5moOn
By the way seouljah, given the fact that it could not even get below 34.75 in 7+ hours since the open of the session would not give me lots of confidence in a short. How about those people who shorted near the end of the day--don't you think they might have their stops run first before a move down? Stops are probably high 30s or low 40s. But I do not have a good read on globex trading as I cannot interpret the volume as easily, so I'm only guessing; I only know I would wait to short, and risk missing out rather than getting blown away first.
I see your point and did not consider spx vol and Only looked at es. Tunnel vision I tell you. Oh well, thanks for the tip, but gonna keep the short on since it is on. Will definitely go short in the low forties as we approach some heavy resistance there. Will keep my eyes peeled on spx vol from now on.
Yeah definitely, hope it works for you. Regarding SPX vs. ES volume, it's only a minor interesting note that they can be different. I don't place a lot of emphasis on it. My point was simply that you would expect volume to be low this week. So just like large volume at the open and close has no relevance to volume analysis (since the norm is high volume), so does volume analysis around holidays, IMO, unless it's out of the norm.
Yes, you are absolutely right that markets had failed to move lower, but on the contrary they have failed to move higher. I just don't see the bigger players taking a long crack at this from here. We have run up near 40 points today. Looking for a pull back is not out of the question. But hey, your right, from here, it is a coin toss.