GMST there was some divergence on the vix in the last week where the mkt was tanking and the vix did not respond, people were blogging about it, that was a tell. As Rickshaw says there is a lot of overnight movement leaving scraps sometimes on intraday. When the market gapped up over 1220 there was a high probability of a gap fill.
here is where the cinfident bulls get their..squeezed..i love it! make em 2nd guess! thats right, not that easy
The bulls are counting on the European banks to borrow from ECB (long term financing operation supplies unlimited funds @ 1% for a period of 3 years), in theory this is an arbitrage opportunity because most European bonds (including the shorter maturities) yield well over 1% now. Spain sold 3/6 month treasuries for over 5% back in Nov, so thats a pretty huge profit there for those who dare to take it. Obviously this isnt a risk-free trade because they can still default like Greece, but today's bond auction went very well, so that is probably a good indication of the banks' interest in the program.