ES Journal Archive (2011)

Without doing a whole presentation--big scary down bar trading 30K+ contracts in 1 minute => buyers buying into the low of the day. A couple of minutes later, it breaks the low and reverses up, again, trading 16K in 1 minute. Pushed up, and bought the 52. But, I was early. The final buying was into 50. 30K in 2 minutes. Then it bases at 49. At this point I was tired and didn't buy it any more, at the exact time I should have. Target was 58, an obvious target and probably will attract sellers again. I'm spent from today, what an emotional roller coaster, first nap time and then all hell breaks loose.

When there's crappy news like S&P downgrade, etc., and scary big red bars, it's a great time to buy. I just did it about 10 minutes too early. This market has been up, up, up, last week, and it's possible (not saying it is) that this news is like anything else -- just an invitation for the panic to attract more sellers, so that those who did not buy at the open yesterday at 48-50 can get on the train before it moves up yet again.

 

The market is random.

 

I'd like to know the answer to that question as well.

 

I don't know the answer myself, but at least market does not behave in an erratic way other than the last half an hour. I know conceptually the reasons behind it : imabalances, leverged ETFs rebalancing etc., short covering, intraday margin changes etc.

What I am saying is its probably hardest to trade ES in the last 30 minutes. And I am wondering if anyone can trade last 30 minutes consistently well. I cannot, but can anyone do it ?!!:eek:

 

found support at friday nip, retraced 50% of move from 66-48,or returned to the first resistance at lower nip,media has built a lot of fear into being short...its a good idea to stop trading in last 30 minutes,sometimes on trend days you will get an extension of the move but the last 1/2 hour will whipsaw,so for newer folks,it is just gambling

 

good rule of thumb, current move has a higher probability of stalling during that last 30 m time. bonds have closed top of the hour. positions unwinding. reversals within reversals? unless it's a solid trend day. oh and ppt & black helicopters.

 

ok thanks for inputs. I will keep an eye.

 

Don't feel bad 3 points isn't terrible at all

 

Short 1250

 

your trading with a bias. that will get you in trouble in the long run. trade what you see not what you think.

believe me, i use to do this and it cooked me.