ES Journal Archive (2011)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Jan 3, 2011.

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  1. I noticed that, and it brings to mind a question I have for everyone ...

    What, if any, effect will the fact that this latest double (666 to 1332) took LESS THAN 1/2 THE TIME as the previous double have on the timing and/or extent of the eventual significant retracement?

    I think I mentioned earlier that past doubles in general have retraced at least 5%, starting anywhere from the double number to 50 handles higher.
     
    #1771     Feb 19, 2011
  2. ammo

    ammo

    83-87 spx tripled
     
    #1772     Feb 19, 2011
  3. Redneck

    Redneck

    It is definitely interesting times we are in, probably get more intresting before its conclusion too

    imho

    RN
     
    #1773     Feb 19, 2011
  4. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Pete is a wise market analyst IMHO and he predicted the huge May-July correction last year about 6 weeks before it happened, only he thought it would start in July, not May. Regardless, his fundamental analysis of why it would happen was spot on, and he recently provided a new analysis of what's to come. He wisely goes with the flow, but remains on alert for reality kicking in:

    http://www.1option.com/

    "The fear of a credit crisis has evaporated. It is inconceivable to most people that it can happen on a global basis. After extensive research, I have come to the realization that it is possible and probable. The wealth centers of the world have reached the point of no return and deficits continue to spiral out of control. Structural issues are sucking them deeper into debt and interest expenses are reaching critical levels. The US, Europe and Japan are all competing for capital to finance these deficits and that means interest rates will climb, accentuating the problem."
     
    #1774     Feb 19, 2011
  5. It took me a long time to erase fundamental analysis from my trading but looking back it was one of the better decisions of my career.

    It's just not worth it, look at the economists, why aren't they more billionaires of them ?

    Markets are weird and they can remain irrational for extremely extended periods of time.

    I trade the bars and nothing else, keeping it simple works for me, make it too complicated and my poor brain can't handle it.

    NAD
     
    #1775     Feb 19, 2011
  6. Duly noted, thanks. Both doubles in there (100-200, 150-300) each took a little more than 2 years. Also, retracements from the double point:

    200 (+55) ... 255 -10% to 230

    300 (+40) ... 340 -35% to 220
     
    #1776     Feb 19, 2011
  7. ammo

    ammo

    reduce 38.25,avg 37.8,,thanks tomahawk, for breaking that down
     
    #1777     Feb 21, 2011
  8. i'm sim trading a scalping method today
    i'll be selling overbought + 1 add with a wide disaster stop
    and buying oversold with 1 add

    sold at 39.25 trying to get an add at 3975 but no fill
    disaster stop at 43.75
     
    #1778     Feb 21, 2011
  9. covered at 38.75 and 38.5 +.5 and +.75
     
    #1779     Feb 21, 2011
  10. long at 38.5 and 38.75 disaster stop at -4.5
     
    #1780     Feb 21, 2011
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