Think about trend following funds buying the N-day tight range break out last week. Where are their stops? Where are they going to reverse to short? And how much $ is behind their positions?
The key to whether right below 860 or 847 is the combined size and puke point of the long positions built from the breakout crowd at the top, and the dip buying crowd from friday. I see 1 mil contracts up there, 75% open interest. So most overnight contracts are net long from WAY ABOVE. That does not include the underlying stocks. Edit: should be 50% open interest.
When they don't let the Fri close dip buyers out overnight sun, lower it goes. They sure gave them a lot of hope and even got some to double up I am sure.
This is the double up point here at 75. Below 70 is likely the puke point for the daily breakout crowd.
There may be some pixie dust and magic beans left over from the 12/18 swing low at 73.50, doubt it will hold for the day though.