More funny with these predictions is that they can have 2 days (some claim 3 to 4 days) window per call. So each call of change in trend (CIT) is a window of 5 trading days, upto 9 days. If there are 12 such important dates in a year, you would have coverage of 12 x 5 days = 60 days within a year with about 260 trading days ... so you spend quarter of the time nervously looking for the topping or bottoming signs Adding more confusion there, some claim that those dates sometimes are inflection points, thus, a high made 2 days before the prediction, will have a mirror high 2 days later, like the letter M. I am not saying these predictions are of no value, just that they add too much decision making to the trading process.
From SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR THE OLDEST MILITARY TREATISE IN THE WORLD 18. All warfare is based on deception. 19. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
Based on the daily chart I was bullish for today, but I didn't want to jinx it. Half million jobs lost, that is about what we expected, so let's rally!
01/09/2009 08:30 *DJ US Nov Payrolls Revised To -584K From -533K 01/09/2009 08:30 *DJ US Dec Nonfarm Payrolls -524K; Consensus -525K 01/09/2009 08:30 *DJ US Dec Unemployment Rate 7.2%; Consensus 7.0% Oh look we beat consensus ......and November got revised up, how predictable.:eek:
So shouldn't the futures be having a field day by now? Wow, we're up measly 3 points. Now watch the spinmeisters come out in drove to rationalize that it wasn't as bad as expected. But then again, it WAS so much worst than expected last month the market simply decided to shrug it off altogether. Yeah, I know, I'm just a big cynic. :eek:
914 proven itself that there are size sellers up there. RTH Pivot at 902.75 A retreat to pivot first before attacking the gap up there may happen. The NQ is posting the most hated formation I have seen. A gap up to test the previously unfilled down gap ... Pek, the daily is bullish if and only if we close above your SMA, isn't it?
Don't underestimate the bulls. They are willing to play blocking only yesterday to defend the prior day low and wait til the very end to push things a bit higher to trigger the short squeeze ... May see a replay of that today if 900 is defended again.