ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

TY!

I will quote Nadeem Walayat regarding USD (in fact I tend to quote him a lot recently as his explanations past & present make so much sense to me). BTW he has a very interesting explanation as to why Japan DID NOT got through a deflationary decade, scroll about half way down http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22199.html

"USD Index Forecast Final Conclusion

The USD index is targeting a trend to a new all time low in the region of USD 69-70 by mid 2011, that will be followed by a strong rally that could see the Dollar retrace all of the decline back towards USD 80. The problem is with the timing of these trends as volatility will be high. It's a tough exercise but I conclude in the USD taking some time to base following the mid 2011 low before the subsequent bounce to 80 takes place. Therefore the forecast trend is USD 69-70 by mid 2011 followed by a bounce to 80 by October 2011. The immediate future is suggestive of an imminent bounce towards 80 by early December before the final swing lower to a new all time low takes place as illustrated by the below forecast trend graph."

<img src=http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2010/Oct/usd-index-forecast-2011.gif>

There is a lot more at this link, check out for detailed explanations.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23427.html

 

You must think in cycles.

- Expansion
- Equilibrium
- Decline
- Absorption

 

So do the fundamentals drive price cycles or do price cycles drive the fundamentals?

 

hmm....that might have been the best we can ask for 'dip wise'.
Doubt ill get hit for my long now....

 

Ammo, was that intentional....and is 17 the boogie man


NiN

 

Hehe, I would say that it is not quite possible to come to a firm conclusion which drives which, sometimes price change is a consequence of a certain change in fundamentals & other times fundamentals change because of a price change (new Lows).

 

Where are we in the housing cycle? Decline.

What do we need to bring the supply and demand curve to equilibrium point? Absorption.

Do we have absorption yet? Nada.

 

So you want to be a macro trader? You want to be like John Paulson? What software and data do you need to have? What metrics do you need to track and monitor?

 

1185 was equilibrium, above was expansion.

 

Draw a horizontal line on a 30-minute chart starting from when price first touched 1185 and extend it out to today.