I am feeling in this market like on party where everybody is smiling about a joke that I do not know (and I hesitate ask because I am not sure if thats joke is not about me). I am 100% sure that we are well above the bottom of next bigger retraction so shorting is safe. However I do not know where and when this retraction will begin so i need to be very precise not to be caught in trap. Long positions look to me much riskier because if this will start falling we can wake up one day with gap 50 points down so simple keep long position overnight I can not.
the more obvious the short becomes (H&S, overbought conditions, news network spin), the more I add to long term, dividend paying accounts. Trades.....well, that's another story.
That was pretty good shall we say? and it was a very shortable 3rd top: I circled the Failure zone where the Failure and bounce should have happened. Nevertheless the math was right on target, the cash top was 96.14... (For newcomers, the 26 (aka Height) comes from the distance between the 1st top and the middle low, and it is usually the same as the distance between the Failure and the 3rd top. The Failure usually occurs half of the Height from the 2nd top, so around 1189-13=1176 was the level to watch for the bounce.)
There was a mini dragon on the 5 min futures chart in the last hour. 1st bottom : 73.75 2nd bottom: 74.5 Height: 2.5 pts Failure at 75.5 So the 3rd bottom was expected at 75.5-2.5=73 and it occured one tick lower. Bottom line is you should have gone long there, based on the pattern, not short it....