depends on your outlook on the fed, the fed represents the central banks, those banks are run by goldie ,morgan, jpmorgan...this is only conjecture so take it with a grain of salt...the casino's need to pay out 97.5% to keep the customers in there, if they pay out 96.5% the customers drop off, if they pay out 98.5% they go broke, it's calculated down to the tenths of a percent....the market is a big casino,ben or no ben...they naturally pullback and allow the customer to get his dole to keep him coming back,without the customer ,they go broke...it's almost a swiss watch at expiration..they drop it and fatten up the puts,they short em,they rally it to fatten up the calls,they short them..then they pull it back to the middle somewhere and let their fat puts and calls go out worthles or near worthless...last time it didn't happen was sept 09..thats the last time i didnt get a pullback and if i had rolled to dec i would've been all right...not saying it's gonna roll over ..it blew thru all the stops today til 81 es...odds are that the process will repeat . 118 calls in spy went from .97 to .58 from 1:30 cst til close on about 38000 contracts,(appx 34% of the volume of 110,383) you get the gist
Hey ammo, How's it going man? It's been a while. You're spot on about how they keep the retail trader coming for more and play games with option prices. Keep up the good work!
ES Bearish Position Trade 1188 6 cars yet to be filled 1219 stop on 3 contracts 1231 stop on 3 contracts Target 1 1106 1 contract Target 2 1083 2 contracts If no stops: Target 3 Stop adjustment to reduce risk after Target 2 Target 4 To be determined new price action ESD