But when is eventually? If you take a look at the daily, weekly, monthly charts of Nasdaq, this looks pretty damn real to me personally. For all who are talking about volume etc. I think that is pretty overrated. If it is indeed retail volume that is lacking that just signals to me personally that dumb money doesn't know when to get in or out. I think mutual fund outflows confirm this, to me that is dumb money as well.
I'm going short for a quick scalp if it breaks below 1119.00 On a longer term basis, I'd say the odds favor the longs .
The daily chart sure looks like a breakout setup, but it looked much that way in early August too and failed badly.
It sure is. Following chart of ESx2 - NQx3 shows how NQ has outperformed ES since beginning of the month. Feel free to go long the spread if you think it's not "sustainable". I am long from about -$4000 and so far it isn't going very well.
'ES-NQ' spread is just short ES without a stop. Look at Feb-April timeframe, no pullback until Greek riots/flash crash. Need a macro event.
It ran straight downward in the Jan - Feb timeframe. Was pretty rangebound Mar - Apr. Anyways, like all trades - some works, some don't. But usually this tends to revert at least a bit after running for $4k straight. I am holding for now, might even add around -5.5k. Probably scale back / get out if we reach -6k ish.