you can also see same on the weekly ... with allowances for a rather sloppy right shoulder ... not sure, given 3x-opex, we'll see that drop this week still, interesting ... [edit] i can't help but think that the bearish case here is weakened by the NDX's bullishness
Ended up taking a very small profit on my put from yesterday, would have done better if I just put in sell at market when market opened. I then chased a little on the ES, 6B, and CL all long trades. 6b went 10 ticks against me, so closed it out at just negative 1 tick when it came back. ES, I did not want to try for the breakout, but really, I should have at least set target to recent high, so only made .75. On CL set target to 1 tick below a previous day's high, and got taken out a profit. So overall actually double the profit from yesterday on futures but think I could have done better if I got up a littler earlier. What I could have done better, for CL, it was rocketing up, I should have just gotten in earlier. On 6b, I should have drawn support line, and just had order to buy around there, reason I went long was CL was going up, so assumed USD was going down, however no correlation, but what saved me from a loss was we were in fact in a range after an uptrend, and with other markets going up, my stop was not hit. On ES, it actually was a good entry, so I should have targeted at least the previous highs like I did on CL, or go for the breakout. If I was trading more contracts, I would have gone for the breakout. My strategy does not allow me to trade at these highs unless I decide to counter trade so I am setting my system to sim from real to prevent me from giving back my gains. I also have some stock trades that if they pan out will allow me to put some more money into my futures account.
So let's see how we have been doing. I think ES Dec was around 1116 when I posted this: We only went down to 1114.6 on the cash, but here we are exactly 10 pts (Volente is getting a hard on) higher making the 2nd top... If you shorted when I posted, you went in the money by 7 pts, before turning back up... Oh and a recap of my earlier prediction when I called for the top a few days early, Sept ES was 1108 when I posted and although it wasn't the top but it did drop down to 1101, so again, at least you could get out at BE, if not with profit... But enough of me and my predictions, let's have fun! NDX has a giant doubletop with RSI divergence....
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NQ has to selloff hard before any interesting downside can commence. It looks like it's double topping now, a strong down move will make me bearish.
H&S on a gentle up grind have been risky lately. Agree on the pending drop, but this can grind another 3 hard against a guy, and a little volume can spark 8 plus. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
My channels show real danger of "blow of top" type upmove over 30. Although short right at the moment with 25 point stop and 25 point target looks to me safe trade right now I will not short it bellow 22 for this swing trade.