No, the current prediction is DOA. Even assuming a Euro-ranger (expiration touch/European options) it's worth <2/3 of the initial debit; 60% marked-loss on the expiration-trade, and 100% realized-loss on the 104/110 DNT (110 was hit).
what if you could cheat and manipulate it at expiration every month,say you were several of the big firms and you weren't totally honest,couldn't you push it back to say 107 and clean up,hypothetically of course,unless of course a short hedge fund was forced to liquidate and it was more profitable to make them pay top dollar
It's no longer possible. Markets and the resulting arb-relationships make give-ups in other markets too easy to effect. The VIX settlement is often rigged, but I haven't seen it in larger, listed markets; and certainly not on the scale (110 to 107). IOW, it can only happen moments before expiration, or upon settlement. 104/110 predicted 104.29/111.73 high (failure) 111.50 last
Give it up riskarb. You called me out and said I could not predict spy 30 days out. You were proven wrong and now your fragile ego can't handle the cold hard truth. The lesson is just because you can't do it does not mean others can't too.