Good trade analysis. I took a look at that price and had a short entry too, so I went 1103 short and exited at 1101 for 2 points of profit. I am now positive for the day on my futures trades, yea . All forex trades are also positive so far.
I went from - $ 190 to positive $ 115. I think I may stick with es and forex for now instead of trading CL and NG which seem to like f ing me.
My target for my short EUR/GBP trade is around 100 pips. No stops and targets are for large movement trades, not doing many contracts prevents account destruction. On the last ES trade, it was a scalp and I had a stop and target. I should admit that the forex trades are given to me by a master trader with 8 years of experience.
Great trading day. Just some random market commentary, please forgive me for the length or if you see it as useless. It is becoming increasingly clear to me that the market will tell you exactly what it wants to do if you listen to the old hag. Furthermore, if you are aware of the fact that the market likes to take the least amount of people with it when it makes its move, a lot of the movement wont be surprising at all. Now mind you, I'm no guru or some "expert", but don't let noise complicate the market for you, she really isnt complicated most of the times. Screw fundamentals, this market is running based on technicals. Believe it or not, I shorted 18.50 (18.75 was the high) for 2 lousy ticks simply because I was biased to the upside and the hatred of holding trades into the volatility of the open, even though experience and technicals told me my best bet was to hold on to a short. I also shorted 12.50 today (13 was the high), yet I closed them before hitting the targets pointed out by the charts (first batch to be out at 08...stop to breakeven....then take rest out at 05). So to people lurking and trying to learn how some of the mess works, here's a nutshell. Have a bloody plan, and stick to it. There are a few people with interesting plans, ammo has his scaling methods coupled with his nipples and cleavage MP (imagine breasts that can make you money), Pho has his channels, Pek has his dragons, vol has r10, and T-days, (Not saying I know their plans, but this are things they post the most), but having a plan and sticking to them will increase your chance of success. Let CNBC worry about the bleeping fundamental reason behind the market being down 6 points after a crazy @$$ run-up.
This is a great post, imo. This is the reason why. I woke up today after 9 hours of sleep still feeling extremely tired. I sat down at my computer, drew some trendlines showing an uptrend during the overnight session. Price started dropping. My mind was fixed to going long and every pause during that drop I got long thinking we were making a bigger pullback, at least to the 20 EMA. It kept dropping. Being on SIM I kept making bad trade after bad trade. Thought I could catch the next one, ramped up to like 8 contracts and got maybe 1 point before the next drop. Just saying I was very impatient. This was SIM and my discipline is off and on because I make trades just to see what happens sometimes. My subconscious tells me it's a bad trade, but I still do it anyways. I closed down my software, took a shower, got some food, got a cup of coffee to wake up. Came back later in the day after watching my niece. Looked at my charts and immediately saw that I should have been shorting. Now, it was after the fact, but one of my best setups occurred to get in short before I left (but since I was biased to the long side I didn't see it or wait for it) and the market ended up dropping 11 pts after that. It was like my brain didn't have a bias and turned on the Short switch. I'm nowhere near the caliber of you guys, but I follow this thread throughout the day. Just wanted to make a comment. As stupid as it sounds, I'm thinking about going live soon. I need to have real money so that I don't hope for profits or force myself into trades.