How can one learn from forums? By reading them all and studying them every spare minute. That is how Volente learned. Joeyata is a much better trader than any found here.
I ain't so sure about that. Although I can't speak for others, I would think most of us come here to either gain fresh insight but not necessarily change their old habits or just amuse themselves. So please cut your condescending shit about teaching anyone anything of value.
nothing says we cant rally now for the rest of winter, spring then summer.Maybe even into next winter.... classic set up for a nice 6-12 month rally.
For daytrade purpose, your MP chart confirms the need to break below 800 first, possibly with a test from below, before any meaningful down side move can happen.
i dont trade off of a ten day chart ,on a daily that ledge might be taken out at 12:50 -1: pm cst,then at 1:50 -2 pm,that is where we seem to start moves,so as a guess if thats ten days and it represents half of a 20 day chart,we could have another up day or 2,it just says we will need to take out that ledge,on a daily it's that day 8 out of ten times or more,if we get below or in the 808 -13 range and it provides res,thats when we'll selloff
A bullish view, but totally convincing. Want more than widening swap spreads to call a rally. ------------------------------------------------------------ LIBOR had improved quite nicely and indeed it is still is vastly improved from last summer. It is still, however, on a rebound that started when the new administration announced addition regulations for financial institutions receiving TARP funds (a.k.a. federal zombie bank funds) as well as loud democratic grousing about tax cuts contained in the proposed and ever-growing stimulus package. Friday it was up again, hitting 0.24% overnight (0.21% prior, 0.40% 1-month (0.39%), and 1.17% 3-month (1.16%). Modest moves, but the prior gains were more sizeable and pushed the 3-month rate up from 1.09% just a few days back. Despite this there are modest improvements in a wide array of reports. Most if taken individually would be nothing more than a statistical blip. Putting them all together you get an ever so modest improvement in prospective economic activity. Swap spreads, a leading indicator, have improved. The first is a really impressive one though it pertains more to the stock market but it is directly related to the economy. Swap spreads are a measure of the risk involved in financial transactions. Wider spreads mean more uncertainty and risk as more up front profit margin is required by the parties in order to transact the deal. Narrower spreads indicate calmer markets as the parties demand less gain on the exchange. Right now swap spreads have recovered impressively, i.e. narrowing rapidly the past month. The significance is that spreads reflect improvement or deterioration in areas that facilitate economic activity and are thus precursors to actual movement in the economy. That means they are also precursors to moves in the market. Right now spreads have improved dramatically while the market has note. After a rally off the November low that took the indices up through early January the indices have come back to test. They came back more than you would like, but they are trying to set up the past week. With the 3-month consolidation in place and a cadre of high quality stocks in place as well, the market is trying to set up to follow the spread indicator higher. Other areas of modest improvement. Barton Biggs noted today that the PMI reports have shown an uptick the past month. True. Chicago improved to 34.1 from 33.7. Still well below the breakeven at 50, but it is a very bad recession and this is the first tick higher since the plunge. What about the service ISM? It improved to 40.6 from 37.3. Factory orders showed non-defense capital spending up 3.9% annually, the first gain in 4 months and the best gain in 10. Computers rallied 12.5%. Commercial construction rose 0.7% and is up 12.1% the past three months. Real disposable income rose 1% and rose 7.1% annually for the past three months. Real spending rose 0.6%. Income is rising as inflation falls, and inflation is falling mainly due to the tumble in oil and gasoline prices. Larry Kudlow estimates that that gasoline price drop is equivalent to a $350B tax cut. It is not an overwhelming, straight flush of positive data. Then again, it never is in the early stages. We initially scoffed at the modest improvement in the PMI data, noting it would need another couple of months of improvement, but that does not mean it is discounted. Especially so when you factor in the other data that is making its own improvements as well. You can see why the market is firming with leadership that is trying to set up for the next break higher. That keeps us looking for the break higher in the stocks.
....I was going to mention the 4 golden 90% patterns formed by candlesticks but I know that is way too condescending and insulting.......